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May 18, 2015

Monday, May 18, 2015

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We endured a week of Celebrity contestants to return to the affable Andrew Haringer, who has two wins in the bag. Will he nab a third?The Final Wager – May 18, 2015

As you might know, I offer all five-time champs the opportunity to pick the theme color for the week following their loss. This would be 7xer Greg Seroka’s turn, but he’s not on Twitter, so I have no way to ask him that isn’t entirely sketchy (and not just sorta sketchy).

Instead, this week’s hue is based on the logo of La Montaña Restaurant in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where Greg is the executive chef.

La Montana logo

Tonight’s game was notable in that all three Daily Doubles were in the second row – and both Andrew and Fritz failed to take advantage of them in Double Jeopardy!.

Speaking of which, guess who else under-wagered on an $800 Daily Double in a category on the atomic elements?

Here are our scores heading into Final:

Andrew

Haringer

Cindy

De La Peña

Fritz

Brantley

13,400 800 16,600

Those two will duke it out with this category:

ANIMATED MOVIE CHARACTERS

Cindy’s low score makes things easy tonight – a nice way to ease back in to regular play.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Andrew doubles his score, he’ll have 26,800.

To cover this all-in wager, Fritz will need to wager 10,200.

Andrew
Cindy
Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
13,400 10,200
26,800 26,800
min max min max min max
10,200

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Fritz with 6,400.

To stay above his total, Andrew can wager up to 7,000.

Andrew
Cindy
Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
7,000 10,200
6,400 6,400
min max min max min max
7,000 10,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Cindy at 1,600.

Fritz could wager at most 15,000.

Andrew
Cindy
Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
11,800 800 15,000
1,600 1,600 1,600
min max min max min max
7,000 10,200 15,000

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Andrew
Cindy
Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,000 10,200 15,000

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Andrew makes the rational maximum wager of 7,000, Fritz will need to wager 3,800 to cover him.

Andrew
Cindy
Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
7,000 3,800
20,400 20,400
min max min max min max
7,000 10,200 15,000
3,800

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 12,800.

To stay above him, Andrew can wager up to 600.

Andrew
Cindy
Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
600 3,800
12,800 12,800
min max min max min max
7,000 10,200 15,000
600 3,800

Note that he can’t cover a zero wager by Fritz with this range, which opens up a small can of worms.

Andrew
Cindy
Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,000 10,200 15,000
600 3,800

Zero wagers

Fritz and Andrew are separated by 3,200, so we look to see where we can plug that amount – and its double, 6,400 – into our ranges.

Andrew
Cindy
Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
6,400 7,000 10,200 15,000
600 3,800 6,400
2,600

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Andrew Cindy Fritz
13,400 800 16,600
7,000 799 10,201
6,400 1,599 6,399
min max min max
6,401 6,999 10,201 14,999
599 3,801 6,399
2,599

Andrew has now won 3 games and $45,999 – and all three wins have come from behind. Kerry Greene did that in three consecutive games, too, which I highlighted as highly improbable. (Thanks to Shane for pointing this out in the comments to that thread.)

I’m giving him a yellow because his wager was reasonable, if slightly flawed. (There’s no point for Fritz to wager for the tie here, but you never know.)

Andrew can take a big leap on the TOC leaderboard tomorrow with a fourth win – and, for all intents and purposes, Dava-Leigh Brush is now out of contention.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

ANIMATED MOVIE CHARACTERS
HER LOOK WAS PARTLY INSPIRED BY DESCENDANT SHIRLEY “LITTLE DOVE” CUSTALOW MCGOWAN & BY MODEL CHRISTY TURLINGTON
Correct response: Show
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