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May 13, 2015

Wednesday, May 13, 2015 – Celebrity Jeopardy! #3

Celebrity Jeopardy!

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Greetings from not-so-sunny LA! Caught Wednesday’s game at O’Brien’s in Santa Monica before heading to the back room for pub quiz.The Final Wager – May 13, 2015

This was an exciting one between the two gentlemen – but Mo could have made it much more so with a True Daily Double on that slam-dunk $800 clue, or by getting that last $1,600 clue to pull into a tie with John.

Alas.

Mo

Rocca

Wendi

McLendon-Covey

John

Berman

Inner-City Scholarship Fund WomenShelter of Long Beach Friends of Karen
20,800 4,400 22,400

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

FAMOUS NAMES

Here’s everyone’s favorite poll again:

How should Keith handle this week's shows?

    Skip the entire week! (12%, 15 Votes)

    Be ruthless! They could lose money for their charity! (61%, 75 Votes)

    Be nice! They're playing for charity! (26%, 32 Votes)

Total Voters: 122

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This is the Strong Form of Shore’s Conjecture.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Mo doubles his score, he’ll have 41,600.

To cover this all-in wager, John will need to wager 19,200.

Mo
Wendi
John
20,800 4,400 22,400
20,800 19,200
41,600 41,600
min max min max min max
19,200

An incorrect response with that wager will leave John with 3,200.

To stay above his total, Mo can wager up to 17,600.

Wendi can wager up to 1,200.

Mo
Wendi
John
20,800 4,400 22,400
17,600 1,200 19,200
3,200 3,200 3,200
min max min max min max
17,600 1,200 19,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Wendi at 8,800.

To stay above her, Mo can wager at most 12,000.

John could wager at most 13,600.

Mo
Wendi
John
20,800 4,400 22,400
12,000 4,400 13,600
8,800 8,800 8,800
min max min max min max
12,000 1,200 19,200
17,600
13,600

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Mo
Wendi
John
20,800 4,400 22,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
12,000 1,200 19,200
17,600
13,600

Second-order calculations

Shoretegic wagers

If Mo chooses to stay above a double-up by Wendi, he will have at most 32,800.

John can cover that with a wager of 10,400.

Mo
Wendi
John
20,800 4,400 22,400
12,000 10,400
32,800 32,800
min max min max min max
12,000 1,200 19,200
17,600
10,400 13,600

To stay above his “Shoretegic” total, Mo can wager up to 8,800.

Mo
Wendi
John
20,800 4,400 22,400
8,800 10,400
12,000 32,800
min max min max min max
8,800 1,200 19,200
12,000
17,600 10,400 13,600

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Mo
Wendi
John
20,800 4,400 22,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
8,800 1,200 19,200
12,000
17,600 10,400 13,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
John and Mo: 1,600
John and Wendi: 18,000
Mo and Wendi: 16,400

Mo
Wendi
John
20,800 4,400 22,400
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
3,200 8,800 1,200 19,200
12,000
15,200 10,400 13,600

We’ll restrict Mo’s max to 15,200, in case Wendi goes for that 1,200 wager. (I didn’t feel like adding in that calculation earlier, but I see now it’s necessary.)

What actually happened

$41,600 $10,000 $50,000
Mo Wendi John
20,800 4,400 22,400
20,800 2,000 20,500
41,600 6,400 42,900
min max min max min max
3,201 8,799 1,199 19,201
11,999 10,401 13,599
15,199

I’m glad Mo’s gamble worked out. Maybe he thought John would wimp out on the lockout wager; otherwise, it offers a much lower expected value than something smaller.

Assuming coin flips for Final Jeopardy!, even with a wager of $11,999, the all-in bet results in an average of around $8,000 less for his charity. The big difference comes when both gentlemen get the clue wrong.

Wager $20,800 Wager $11,999 Difference
Both right $41,600 $32,799 +$8,801
Just Mo right $50,000 $50,000 $0
Just John right $10,000 $10,000 $0
Both wrong $10,000 $50,000 -$40,000
Average $27,900 $35,700 $7,800

Note that had this clue been a triple stumper, Wendi would have won, despite her own bad wager. Ay yi yi!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

FAMOUS NAMES
IN MARCH 2012 THIS DIRECTOR TWEETED, “JUST ARRIVED AT THE OCEAN’S DEEPEST PT. HITTING BOTTOM NEVER FELT SO GOOD”
Correct response: Show
Celebrity Jeopardy!

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