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May 7, 2015

Thursday, May 7, 2015

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Poor Elliot Yates has taken a beating in the TOC standings over the past two months. Will he drop another notch tonight?The Final Wager – May 7, 2015

He might be, but it’s not guaranteed. For the first time in four games, Scott Ylinen doesn’t have the victory wrapped up before Final.

Scott

Ylinen

Emily

Bialowas

Andrew

Haringer

13,600 5,200 11,200

We’ll duke it out over this category:

MASCOTS

For those of you who don’t follow me on social media (boo!), you might have missed out on this beautiful article by Rebecca Golden, who finished in second yesterday:

I Lost on ‘Jeopardy!’ — But I Finally Beat My Fear Of Being Called Fat

Rebecca Golden Alex Trebek

Seriously, it’s one of the best things I’ve ever read.

Back to the game: Emily and Andrew are both going to be caught in predicaments here.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Andrew doubles his score, he’ll have 22,400.

To cover this all-in wager, Scott will need to wager 8,800.

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
8,800 11,200
22,400 22,400
min max min max min max
8,800

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Scott with 4,800.

To stay above his total, Andrew can wager up to 6,400.

Emily can wager up to 400.

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
8,800 400 6,400
4,800 4,800 4,800
min max min max min max
8,800 400 6,400

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Emily at 10,400.

To stay above her, Andrew can wager at most 800.

Scott could wager at most 3,200.

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
3,200 5,200 800
10,400 10,400 10,400
min max min max min max
8,800 400 6,400
800
3,200

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
8,800 400 6,400
800
3,200

Second-order calculations

Quasi-Shoretegic wagers

If Andrew chooses to stay above a double-up by Emily, he will have at most 12,000 with a correct response.

Scott can stay above that total by wagering no more than 1,600.

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
1,600 800
12,000 12,000
min max min max min max
8,800 400 6,400
1,600 800
3,200

To get above his “Shoretegic” total, Andrew must wager 4,000.

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
1,600 4,000
12,000 15,200
min max min max min max
8,800 400 4,000 6,400
1,600 800
3,200

If Andrew misses with that 4,000 wager, Emily can catch him… but she’ll have to put it all on the line.

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
2,000 4,000
7,200 7,200
min max min max min max
8,800 2,000* 4,000 5,600
1,600 400 800
3,200

Third’s max vs. first

Andrew should restrict his max wager. Scott should ignore this – either lock Andrew out, or stay above Emily.

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
8,000 400 5,600
5,600 5,600 5,600
min max min max min max
8,800 2,000* 4,000 5,600
1,600 400 800
3,200 6,400

I suppose on the upside, Scott could go for 3,200 to cover that 5,600 wager out of Andrew.

Anyway, after two orders of analysis:

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
8,800 2,000* 4,000 5,600
1,600 400 800
3,200 3,200 6,400

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Scott and Andrew: 2,400
Scott and Emily: 8,400
Andrew and Emily: 6,000

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
8,800 2,000* 4,800 5,600
1,600 400 800
3,200 3,200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Scott Emily Andrew
13,600 5,200 11,200
8,801 4,900 2,401
4,799 300 8,799
min max min max min max
8,801 5,200 4,801 5,599
1,599 399 799
3,200 (+1?)

I don’t like Andrew’s wager because it (1) puts him at risk against Emily and (2) fails to cover a Colbyesque wager out of Scott.

But either way, he’s the champ – and Elliot can breathe easily.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

MASCOTS
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 100 YEARS, THIS PRO TEAM HAS AN OFFICIAL MASCOT, A BEAR NAMED CLARK
Correct response: Show
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One Comment
  1. You must remember that the last mascot of Chicago’s Northside was Bugs Moran. That turned out badly. Pam Mueller could have claimed it, but she preferred to move away.

What do you think?