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May 1, 2015

Friday, May 1, 2015

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Hey, did you guys catch that category on the mutiny on the Bounty? I hope you saw my post on it beforehand!The Final Wager May 1, 2015

Greg took a hit on that Daily Double in the first round, but made up for it toward the end of Double Jeopardy!. He’s got the lead, but he’s gonna need to nail Final to win, it looks like.

Greg

Seroka

Chris

Gunter

Amanda

Garrett

16,500 14,800 10,200

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

VICE PRESIDENTS

This is a complicated one, so let’s get into it.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Chris doubles his score, he’ll have 29,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Greg will need to wager 13,100.

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
13,100 14,800
29,600 29,600
min max min max min max
13,100

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Greg with 3,400.

To stay above his total, Chris can wager up to 11,400.

Amanda can wager up to 6,800.

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
13,100 11,400 6,800
3,400 3,400 3,400
min max min max min max
13,100 11,400 6,800

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Amanda at 20,400.

To cover this, Chris should wager at least 5,600.

(Greg would need to wager at least 3,900, but this is somewhat questionable.)

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
3,900 5,600 10,200
20,400 20,400 20,400
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 11,400 6,800
3,900

If Chris is incorrect with that wager, Amanda can wager up to 1,000 to stay above his total.

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
5,600 1,000
9,200 9,200
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 11,400 1,000
6,800
3,900

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 11,400 1,000
6,800
3,900

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Chris makes the rational maximum wager of 11,400, Greg will need to wager 9,700 to cover him.

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
9,700 11,400
26,200 26,200
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 11,400 1,000
9,700 6,800
3,900

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 6,800.

To stay above him, Chris can wager up to 8,000.

Amanda may risk up to 3,400.

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
9,700 8,000 3,400
6,800 6,800 6,800
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 8,000 1,000
9,700 11,400 3,400
3,900 6,800

Third’s max vs. second

Against Chris, Amanda can wager at most 1,000. With a correct response, she’ll have 11,200.

To stay above this, Chris can wager at most 3,600. We’ll cap Greg at 5,300, too, just for fun.

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
5,300 3,600 1,000
11,200 11,200 11,200
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 8,000 1,000
9,700 3,600 3,400
3,900 5,300 11,400 6,800

If he is correct, Chris will have 18,400.

To account for this, Amanda will need to wager at least 8,200.

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
3,600 8,200
18,400 18,400
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 8,000 1,000
9,700 3,600 8,200
3,900 5,300 11,400 6,800

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 8,000 1,000
9,700 3,600 8,200
3,900 5,300 11,400 6,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Greg and Chris: 1,700
Greg and Amanda: 6,300
Chris and Amanda: 4,600

Greg
Chris
Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
13,100 5,600 8,000 1,000
9,700 12,600 3,400 3,600 6,300 6,800
3,900 5,300 8,200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Greg Chris Amanda
16,500 14,800 10,200
13,101 5,601 10,100
29,601 20,401 100
min max min max min max
13,101 5,601 7,999 999
9,701 12,599 3,401 3,599 6,301 6,799
3,901 5,299 10,200

Another day, another impressive total out of Greg – and he becomes the second player this season to win a full week of shows (after Alex Jacob).

This just goes to show the importance of having the lead heading into Final.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

VICE PRESIDENTS
OF THE 5 FORMER VICE PRESIDENTS STILL LIVING, HE HELD THE OFFICE THE EARLIEST
Correct response: Show
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