Friday, May 1, 2015

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Hey, did you guys catch that category on the mutiny on the Bounty? I hope you saw my post on it beforehand!

Greg took a hit on that Daily Double in the first round, but made up for it toward the end of Double Jeopardy!. He’s got the lead, but he’s gonna need to nail Final to win, it looks like.

Greg Seroka	Chris Gunter	Amanda Garrett
16,500	14,800	10,200

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

VICE PRESIDENTS

This is a complicated one, so let’s get into it.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Chris doubles his score, he’ll have 29,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Greg will need to wager 13,100.

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
13,100		14,800
29,600		29,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Greg with 3,400.

To stay above his total, Chris can wager up to 11,400.

Amanda can wager up to 6,800.

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
13,100		11,400		6,800
3,400		3,400		3,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100			11,400		6,800

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Amanda at 20,400.

To cover this, Chris should wager at least 5,600.

(Greg would need to wager at least 3,900, but this is somewhat questionable.)

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
3,900		5,600		10,200
20,400		20,400		20,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	11,400		6,800
3,900

If Chris is incorrect with that wager, Amanda can wager up to 1,000 to stay above his total.

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
		5,600		1,000
		9,200		9,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	11,400		1,000
					6,800
3,900

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	11,400		1,000
					6,800
3,900

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Chris makes the rational maximum wager of 11,400, Greg will need to wager 9,700 to cover him.

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
9,700		11,400
26,200		26,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	11,400		1,000
9,700					6,800
3,900

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 6,800.

To stay above him, Chris can wager up to 8,000.

Amanda may risk up to 3,400.

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
9,700		8,000		3,400
6,800		6,800		6,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	8,000		1,000
9,700			11,400		3,400
3,900					6,800

Third’s max vs. second

Against Chris, Amanda can wager at most 1,000. With a correct response, she’ll have 11,200.

To stay above this, Chris can wager at most 3,600. We’ll cap Greg at 5,300, too, just for fun.

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
5,300		3,600		1,000
11,200		11,200		11,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	8,000		1,000
9,700			3,600		3,400
3,900	5,300		11,400		6,800

If he is correct, Chris will have 18,400.

To account for this, Amanda will need to wager at least 8,200.

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
		3,600		8,200
		18,400		18,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	8,000		1,000
9,700			3,600	8,200
3,900	5,300		11,400		6,800

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	8,000		1,000
9,700			3,600	8,200
3,900	5,300		11,400		6,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Greg and Chris: 1,700
Greg and Amanda: 6,300
Chris and Amanda: 4,600

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,100		5,600	8,000		1,000
9,700	12,600	3,400	3,600	6,300	6,800
3,900	5,300			8,200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Greg		Chris		Amanda
16,500		14,800		10,200
13,101		5,601		10,100
29,601		20,401		100
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,101		5,601	7,999		999
9,701	12,599	3,401	3,599	6,301	6,799
3,901	5,299			10,200

Another day, another impressive total out of Greg – and he becomes the second player this season to win a full week of shows (after Alex Jacob).

This just goes to show the importance of having the lead heading into Final.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

VICE PRESIDENTS

OF THE 5 FORMER VICE PRESIDENTS STILL LIVING, HE HELD THE OFFICE THE EARLIEST

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