Friday, May 1, 2015
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Hey, did you guys catch that category on the mutiny on the Bounty? I hope you saw my post on it beforehand!
Greg took a hit on that Daily Double in the first round, but made up for it toward the end of Double Jeopardy!. He’s got the lead, but he’s gonna need to nail Final to win, it looks like.
Greg Seroka |
Chris Gunter |
Amanda Garrett |
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
VICE PRESIDENTS |
This is a complicated one, so let’s get into it.
First-order calculations
Second doubles up
If Chris doubles his score, he’ll have 29,600.
To cover this all-in wager, Greg will need to wager 13,100.
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
13,100 | 14,800 | ||||
29,600 | 29,600 | ||||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | |||||
An incorrect response with that wager will leave Greg with 3,400.
To stay above his total, Chris can wager up to 11,400.
Amanda can wager up to 6,800.
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
13,100 | 11,400 | 6,800 | |||
3,400 | 3,400 | 3,400 | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 11,400 | 6,800 | |||
Third doubles up
A successful doubling will put Amanda at 20,400.
To cover this, Chris should wager at least 5,600.
(Greg would need to wager at least 3,900, but this is somewhat questionable.)
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
3,900 | 5,600 | 10,200 | |||
20,400 | 20,400 | 20,400 | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 11,400 | 6,800 | ||
3,900 |
If Chris is incorrect with that wager, Amanda can wager up to 1,000 to stay above his total.
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
5,600 | 1,000 | ||||
9,200 | 9,200 | ||||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 11,400 | 1,000 | ||
6,800 | |||||
3,900 |
Here’s where things stand after the first order:
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 11,400 | 1,000 | ||
6,800 | |||||
3,900 | |||||
Second-order calculations
Second’s max vs. first
If Chris makes the rational maximum wager of 11,400, Greg will need to wager 9,700 to cover him.
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
9,700 | 11,400 | ||||
26,200 | 26,200 | ||||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 11,400 | 1,000 | ||
9,700 | 6,800 | ||||
3,900 |
If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 6,800.
To stay above him, Chris can wager up to 8,000.
Amanda may risk up to 3,400.
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
9,700 | 8,000 | 3,400 | |||
6,800 | 6,800 | 6,800 | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 8,000 | 1,000 | ||
9,700 | 11,400 | 3,400 | |||
3,900 | 6,800 |
Third’s max vs. second
Against Chris, Amanda can wager at most 1,000. With a correct response, she’ll have 11,200.
To stay above this, Chris can wager at most 3,600. We’ll cap Greg at 5,300, too, just for fun.
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
5,300 | 3,600 | 1,000 | |||
11,200 | 11,200 | 11,200 | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 8,000 | 1,000 | ||
9,700 | 3,600 | 3,400 | |||
3,900 | 5,300 | 11,400 | 6,800 |
If he is correct, Chris will have 18,400.
To account for this, Amanda will need to wager at least 8,200.
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
3,600 | 8,200 | ||||
18,400 | 18,400 | ||||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 8,000 | 1,000 | ||
9,700 | 3,600 | 8,200 | |||
3,900 | 5,300 | 11,400 | 6,800 |
Now, after two orders of analysis:
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 8,000 | 1,000 | ||
9,700 | 3,600 | 8,200 | |||
3,900 | 5,300 | 11,400 | 6,800 | ||
Zero wagers
Score differences:
Greg and Chris: 1,700
Greg and Amanda: 6,300
Chris and Amanda: 4,600
Greg |
Chris |
Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,100 | 5,600 | 8,000 | 1,000 | ||
9,700 | 12,600 | 3,400 | 3,600 | 6,300 | 6,800 |
3,900 | 5,300 | 8,200 | |||
Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.
What actually happened
Greg | Chris | Amanda | |||
16,500 | 14,800 | 10,200 | |||
13,101 | 5,601 | 10,100 | |||
29,601 | 20,401 | 100 | |||
min | max | min | max | min | max |
13,101 | 5,601 | 7,999 | 999 | ||
9,701 | 12,599 | 3,401 | 3,599 | 6,301 | 6,799 |
3,901 | 5,299 | 10,200 |
Another day, another impressive total out of Greg – and he becomes the second player this season to win a full week of shows (after Alex Jacob).
This just goes to show the importance of having the lead heading into Final.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
VICE PRESIDENTS |
OF THE 5 FORMER VICE PRESIDENTS STILL LIVING, HE HELD THE OFFICE THE EARLIEST |
Correct response: | Show> |
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