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April 21, 2015

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

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Yesterday seemed like a disaster; a great 6-time champ lost and we saw the dreaded black wager. Surely we can do better tonight, right?The Final Wager – April 21, 2015

In case you missed it, I put together a comparison of Alex’s strategies against those of Arthur Chu.

Doesn’t look like it! Things got off to a poor start when Michael withheld $200 from his attempt at locking Rachel out on the last Daily Double.

He’s still got the lead, and an extra dollar, which might give me a headache.

Todd

Lovell

Michael

Brady

Rachel

Pepe

5,800 12,201 7,800

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

BODIES OF WATER

Because of Michael’s annoying dollar, I’m going to take a slightly different approach to these calculations tonight.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Rachel doubles her score, she’ll have 15,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Michael will need to wager 3,400. NOTE: this already includes the extra dollar, so I’ll mark that with a plus sign.

Todd
Michael
Rachel
5,800 12,201 7,800
3,400 7,800
15,601 15,600
min max min max min max
3,400+

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Michael with 8,801.

To get above his total, Rachel must wager at least 1,002, and Todd, 3,002. That’s all-in for both.

Todd
Michael
Rachel
5,800 12,201 7,800
3,002 3,400 1,002
8,802 8,801 8,802
min max min max min max
3,002* 3,400+ 1,002*

Michael has some latitude here; I’d cap my downside at 4,400, already taking that dollar into account, so as not to fall below Rachel’s pre-Final total.

Todd
Michael
Rachel
5,800 12,201 7,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
3,002* 3,400+ 4,400+ 1,002*

What actually happened

Todd Michael Rachel
5,800 12,201 7,800
3,000 3,400 7,800
8,800 15,601 0
min max
5,800 3,400 4,400 7,800

Man oh man – another day, another black mark. Notice that if Michael misses, he’ll have $8,801 – flipping Todd’s back-door maneuver on its head!

I think we had black wagers on consecutive days last season, too, even though on the whole they’re exceedingly rare.

Funny story: I gave a group presentation this evening on behalf of Prospect Park Track Club (hence the shirt). I found that instead of picturing everyone in their underwear, I now pretend I’m talking to a camera in my bedroom.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

BODIES OF WATER
THE FINNISH CALL IT ITAMERI & THE GERMANS CALL IT OSTSEE
Correct response: Show
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