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April 9, 2015

Thursday, April 9, 2015

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Kerry Greene broke our 30-week mega-champ drought last night. Will she nab lucky number 7 this evening?The Final Wager – April 9, 2015

If she does, she’ll be the first winner of 7 or more games to win four of those games from behind in Final.

Kerry

Greene

Lindsey

Love

Chris

Hurt

15,400 10,200 18,500

Another great game, with a personal favorite category for the last clue:

REFERENCE WORKS

There could be some mind games here.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Kerry doubles her score, she’ll have 30,800.

To cover this all-in wager, Chris will need to wager 12,300.

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
15,400 12,300
30,800 30,800
min max min max min max
12,300

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Chris with 6,200.

To stay above his total, Kerry can wager up to 9,200.

Lindsey can wager up to 4,000.

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
9,200 4,000 12,300
6,200 6,200 6,200
min max min max min max
9,200 4,000 12,300

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Lindsey at 20,400.

To cover this, Kerry should wager at least 5,000.

(Chris would need to wager at least 1,900, but with Kerry lurking behind, I’d nix this option.)

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
5,000 10,200 1,900
20,400 20,400 20,400
min max min max min max
5,000 9,200 4,000 12,300

If Kerry plays it safe and misses, Lindsey would need to wager at least 200.

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
5,000 200
10,400 10,400
min max min max min max
5,000 9,200 200 4,000 12,300

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
5,000 9,200 200 4,000 12,300

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Kerry makes the rational maximum wager of 9,200, Chris will need to wager 6,100 to cover her.

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
9,200 6,100
24,600 24,600
min max min max min max
5,000 9,200 200 4,000 12,300
6,100

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 12,400.

To stay above him, Kerry can wager up to 3,000.

Lindsey might consider risking at least 2,200.

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
3,000 2,200 6,100
12,400 12,400 12,400
min max min max min max
5,000 9,200 2,200 4,000 12,300
3,000 200 6,100

Third’s max vs. first

If Lindsey goes for 4,000, Kerry and Chris can respond in this manner, although that’s rather silly for Chris to do, in my view.

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
1,200 4,000 4,300
14,200 14,200 14,200
min max min max min max
5,000 9,200 2,200 4,000 12,300
3,000 200 6,100
1,200

Lindsey can cover Kerry’s 1,200 correct wager if she really wants to, but that’s low on my list of priorities.

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
5,000 9,200 2,200 4,000 12,300
3,000 200 6,100
1,200 6,400*

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Chris and Kerry: 3,100
Chris and Lindsey: 8,300
Kerry and Lindsey: 5,200

Kerry
Lindsey
Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
6,200 9,200 2,200 4,000 12,300
3,000 200 6,100 6,200
1,200 6,400*

We eliminate the wagers that don’t create the tightest possible ranges.

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Kerry Lindsey Chris
15,400 10,200 18,500
15,399 8,501 12,301
1 18,701 30,801
min max min max min max
6,201 9,199 2,201 3,999 12,301
1,199 6,101 6,199
10,200

Ay, caramba! Big bets all around – but I like just one of them.

Congrats to Chris on his win, and to Kerry for her fine run – we’ll see her in the TOC.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

REFERENCE WORKS
NOW IN ITS FOURTH EDITION, THE BOOK WITH THIS TITLE FIRST APPEARED IN 1918 AS A 43-PAGE GUIDE FOR CORNELL ENGLISH STUDENTS
Correct response: Show
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