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April 7, 2015

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

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Two games in a row now, Kerry Greene has won from behind in Final. How will she enter the last round in her fifth game?The Final Wager – April 7, 2015

Same deal. Another exciting game.

Kerry

Greene

Jan

Schwartzberg

Evan

Bick

18,500 7,400 22,600

Kerry’s streak might depend on this Final Jeopardy! category:

CELEBRITY FATHERS & DAUGHTERS

It also might depend on the wagering.

Remember, we save the dollar changes until the end.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Kerry doubles her score, she’ll have 37,000.

To cover this all-in wager, Evan will need to wager 14,400.

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
18,500 14,400
37,000 37,000
min max min max min max
14,400

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Evan with 8,200.

To stay above his total, Kerry can wager up to 10,300.

Jan must respond correctly to have a shot, so all-in is the way to go.

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
10,300 800 14,400
8,200 8,200 8,200
min max min max min max
10,300 800* 14,400

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Jan at 14,800.

To stay above her, Kerry can wager at most 3,700.

Evan could wager at most 7,800.

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
3,700 7,400 7,800
14,800 14,800 14,800
min max min max min max
10,300 800* 14,400
3,700
7,800

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
10,300 800* 14,400
3,700
7,800

Second-order calculations

Quasi-Shoretegic wagers

If Kerry chooses to stay above a double-up by Jan, she will have at most 22,200.

Evan can stay above that total by wagering no more than 400.

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
3,700 400
22,200 22,200
min max min max min max
10,300 800* 14,400 400
3,700
7,800

Not quite a Shore’s situation because Kerry can’t cover a zero wager by Evan.

If she’s afraid he’ll get cute, Kerry must wager 4,500.

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
4,500 400
23,000 22,200
min max min max min max
4,500 10,300 800* 14,400 400
3,700
7,800

Second’s max vs. first

If Kerry makes the rational maximum wager of 10,300, Evan will need to wager 6,200 to cover her.

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
10,300 6,200
28,800 28,800
min max min max min max
4,500 10,300 800* 14,400 400
3,700
6,200 7,800

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 16,400.

To stay above him, Kerry can wager up to 2,100.

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
2,100 6,200
16,400 16,400
min max min max min max
4,500 10,300 800* 14,400 400
2,100
3,700 6,200 7,800

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
4,500 10,300 800* 14,400 400
2,100
3,700 6,200 7,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Evan and Kerry: 4,100
Evan and Jan: 15,200
Kerry and Jan: 11,100

Kerry
Jan
Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
8,200 10,300 800* 14,400 15,200
2,100 400
3,700 6,200 7,800

Now that we’ve paired off the tightest possible ranges, we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Kerry Jan Evan
18,500 7,400 22,600
18,498 7,398 14,500
36,998 14,798 8,100
min max min max
8,201 10,299 7,400 14,401 15,199
2,099 6,201 7,799
399

Lack of wagering skills – or straight-up confidence in her own ability? Either way, Kerry has over $125,000 and no need to apologize to me or to anyone saying she’s boring. (Hey, was that a smile she cracked at the end?)

That’s three in a row coming from behind for Kerry – in the next By the Numbers, I’m going to investigate how frequently this happens. I’m guessing twice a season, tops.

Not to beat a dead horse, but Julia Collins was the last six-game winner

The Final Jeopardy! clue

CELEBRITY FATHERS & DAUGHTERS
HE WON A GRAMMY IN 1959, SHE WON 3 IN THE 1970s & A SONG BY BOTH WAS 1991’s SONG & RECORD OF THE YEAR
Correct response: Show
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2 Comments
  1. “cheezguyty” noted on the JBoard recap thread that three straight wins from behind hasn’t happened in over three years (3/8-12/12).

What do you think?