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April 6, 2015

Monday, April 6, 2015

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Happy Easter! Happy Passover! Here’s hoping for a Happy Keith tonight, too.The Final Wager – April 6, 2015

These are some good scores heading into Final.

Kerry

Greene

Brian

Carrick

Eric

Simmonds

11,800 18,800 14,800

Will our champ be able to pull out the come-from-behind victory again?

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

NYC LANDMARKS

Let’s get to it, because this is a fun one. Remember, we save the dollar changes until the end.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Eric doubles his score, he’ll have 29,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Brian will need to wager 10,800.

Kerry
Brian
Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
10,800 14,800
29,600 29,600
min max min max min max
10,800

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Brian with 8,000.

To stay above his total, Eric can wager up to 6,800.

Kerry can wager up to 3,800.

Kerry
Brian
Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
3,800 10,800 6,800
8,000 8,000 8,000
min max min max min max
3,800 10,800 6,800

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Kerry at 23,600.

To cover this, Eric should wager at least 8,800. In this case, though, he will lose to Brian on an incorrect response, so he might as well wager everything.

Kerry
Brian
Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
11,800 4,800 8,800
23,600 23,600 23,600
min max min max min max
3,800 10,800 8,800*
6,800
4,800

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Kerry
Brian
Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
2,200 3,800 10,800 8,800*
6,800
4,800

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Eric makes the rational maximum wager of 6,800, Brian will need to wager 2,800 to cover him. We’ll ignore that, though, given it would allow both Eric and Kerry to pass him.

Kerry could pass that wager from Eric by wagering at least 9,800 (read: everything).

Kerry
Brian
Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
9,800 2,800 6,800
21,600 21,600 21,600
min max min max min max
2,200 3,800 10,800 8,800*
6,800
9,800* 4,800

Third’s max vs. first

Eric could cover Kerry’s maximum wager by putting up 800. Brian‘s 3,200 wager makes no sense here.

Kerry
Brian
Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
3,800 3,200 800
15,600 15,600 15,600
min max min max min max
2,200 3,800 10,800 8,800*
1,200 6,800
9,800* 4,800 800

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Kerry
Brian
Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
2,200 3,800 10,800 8,800*
1,200 6,800
9,800* 4,800 800

Zero wagers

Kerry
Brian
Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
3,000 3,800 10,800 8,800*
1,200 3,000
9,800* 4,800 7,000 4,000 6,800

Lots happening here – 3,000, 4,000, 7,000…

After this, we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Kerry Brian Eric
11,800 18,800 14,800
11,800 12,000 8,801
23,600 6,800 5,999
min max min max min max
3,001 3,799 10,801 14,800
4,801 6,999 1,201 2,999
11,800 4,001 6,799

In many situations, I’d give Kerry’s wager a red. Eric, however, has some wagers that could keep her (mostly) at bay – but note that my preferred range for Kerry would cover a zero/incorrect response from Eric.

Eric almost left $5,999 on the table. He finished in third anyway.

Brian’s wager was fine – technically, he could have gone for $799 or $800 more – but with so many moving parts below him, I’d recommend sticking to the bare minimum.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

NYC LANDMARKS
THE LOBBY OF THIS LANDMARK HAS AN ART DECO CEILING FRESCO BY EDWARD TRUMBULL CALLED “TRANSPORT AND HUMAN ENDEAVOR”
Correct response: Show
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