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April 2, 2015

Thursday, April 2, 2015

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We’re back to normal here at The Final Wager.

…or are we?The Final Wager – April 2, 2015

Be sure to check out “the other wagering website,” Just Wager $4,000.

Man, had I gotten that Daily Double under “bordering two countries” or whatever, I couldn’t have said “bet it all” quickly enough.

Kerry

Greene

Sharon

Boyd

Niels

Hirschmann

16,600 4,800 9,400

This one’s really straightforward. Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

NATIONAL HISTORIC LANDMARKS

Ha, sike! “Sent with a kiss” is a thing?

Kerry

Greene

Sharon

Boyd

Niels

Hirschmann

16,600 4,800 11,800

This makes things MUCH more interesting. Why, you ask? Just stick an equals sign and a plus sign into those numbers.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Niels doubles his score, he’ll have 23,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Kerry will need to wager 7,000.

Kerry
Sharon
Niels
16,600 4,800 11,800
7,000 11,800
23,600 23,600
min max min max min max
7,000

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Kerry with 9,600.

To stay above her total, Niels can wager up to 2,200.

Now, here’s where things get fun – Sharon will have this total if she doubles up.

Kerry
Sharon
Niels
16,600 4,800 11,800
7,000 4,800 2,200
9,600 9,600 9,600
min max min max min max
7,000 4,800* 2,200

WAGER-TO-TIE ALERT!

Kerry
Sharon
Niels
16,600 4,800 11,800
FIRST-ORDER SECOND-ORDER COVER ZERO
min max min max min max
7,000 4,800* 2,200

We do have one other possibility to consider.

Second-order calculations

Quasi-Shoretegic wagers

If Niels chooses to stay above a double-up by Sharon, he will have at most 14,000.

Kerry can stay above that total by wagering no more than 2,600.

Kerry
Sharon
Niels
16,600 4,800 11,800
2,600 2,200
14,000 14,000
min max min max min max
7,000 4,800* 2,200
2,600

In that case, Niels must wager 7,400 – but at that point, might as well go all-in.

Kerry
Sharon
Niels
16,600 4,800 11,800
2,600 7,400
19,200 19,200
min max min max min max
7,000 4,800* 2,200
2,600 7,400*

So, here are your wagering ranges:

Kerry Sharon Niels
16,600 4,800 11,800
min max min max
7,001 4,800 ! 11,800 !
7,000 !
2,599 2,199

What should each player do?

Here’s the video from the post I put together about wager-to-tie scenarios:

Sharon: everything. Not a dollar less!

Niels: People love debating the proper wager for Niels in a situation like this. I almost always advocate for the bigger play – but the tie possibility should swing even the most passive player into that camp, unless he’s completely averse to the category.

Kerry: Which is more likely – you and Niels will both get it right, or Sharon will be the only one to respond correctly? Add the dollar, unless you really, really don’t like the category.

What actually happened

Kerry Sharon Niels
16,600 4,800 11,800
7,001 4,799 11,800
23,601 9,599 23,600
min max min max
7,001 4,800 ! 11,800 !
7,000 !
2,599 2,199

Had Sharon been the only one to respond correctly, she would have entered a tiebreaker with Kerry. Why risk that? Even more importantly – why risk losing by a dollar if Kerry offers the tie?

Once again, a 7,001 wager deprives us of the opportunity for our first tiebreaker.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

NATIONAL HISTORIC LANDMARKS
50 YEARS AFTER SAN FRANCISCO’S CABLE CARS BECAME A NATIONAL HISTORIC LANDMARK, THIS CITY’S STREET RAILWAY GOT THE DESIGNATION IN 2014
Correct response: Show
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