Monday, March 16, 2015

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I posted the first part of my new tutorial over the weekend. As part of that, I gussied up my calculator a bit – let’s see how it looks.

Looks pretty good, I must say. Check it out below and let me know what you think.

Of particular note in tonight’s game: Alex’s pronunciation of Cart-MAN from South Park.

Kristin did a great job tonight – although I don’t like when Alex brings up streaks so early in a run. Will it jinx her? We’ll find out tomorrow at the earliest, because she’s got this in the bag.

Kristin Sausville	Pauline Sholtys	Darren Shea
24,200	9,800	7,000

UNLESS, of course, she goes wild with this stay-at-home-mom-friendly category:

KIDS’ TV CHARACTERS

The fun stuff will come between Pauline and Darren.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

Kristin has her fourth win locked up; she can wager up to 4,600.

Kristin		Pauline		Darren
24,200		9,800		7,000
4,600		9,800
19,600		19,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
	4,600

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Darren at 14,000.

To cover this, Pauline should wager 4,200.

Kristin		Pauline		Darren
24,200		9,800		7,000
		4,200		7,000
		14,000		14,000
min	max	min	max	min	max
	4,600	4,200

If Pauline is incorrect with that wager, Darren can wager up to 1,400 to stay above her total.

Kristin		Pauline		Darren
24,200		9,800		7,000
		4,200		1,400
		5,600		5,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
	4,600	4,200			1,400

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Kristin		Pauline		Darren
24,200		9,800		7,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	4,600	4,200			1,400

Second-order calculations

We go into mind games for second place.

Third’s max vs. second

Darren can wager at most 1,400. With a correct response, he’ll have 8,400.

To stay above this, Pauline can wager at most 1,400.

Kristin		Pauline		Darren
24,200		9,800		7,000
		1,400		1,400
		8,400		8,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
	4,600	4,200			1,400
			1,400

If she is correct, Pauline will have 11,200.

To account for this, Darren will need to wager at least 4,200.

Kristin		Pauline		Darren
24,200		9,800		7,000
		1,400		4,200
		11,200		11,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
	4,600	4,200			1,400
			1,400	4,200

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Kristin		Pauline		Darren
24,200		9,800		7,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	4,600	4,200			1,400
			1,400	4,200

Zero wagers

No real reason to worry about these here; just add and subtract the $1 where necessary (although we don’t need to do this for Pauline, since she’ll win the tiebreaker for second).

What actually happened

Both challengers correctly went “big”.

One other note: as soon as the category was revealed, I reflexively shouted at the screen what turned out to be the correct response. Love it when that happens.

Rank	Last game	Name	Wins	Winnings
1	15 Jan 2015	John Schultz	5	$104,500
2	02 Jan 2015	Vaughn Winchell	5	$103,103
3	active	Kristin Sausville	4	$81,002
4	08 Jan 2015	Elliot Yates	4	$65,000
5	22 Oct 2014	Alexander Persaud	3	$61,000
6	03 Nov 2014	Ryan Alley	3	$56,800
7	15 Oct 2014	Shane Curtis	3	$42,001
8	25 Feb 2015	Dava-Leigh Brush	3	$31,501
auto	13 Feb 2015	Jennifer Giles	TT	$100,000

As to why Kristin didn’t snag that extra $599, she made a good point:

.@TheFinalWager just wanted to keep the math simple. Ended up feeling lucky as it was since my kids were never really into that show.

— Kristin Sausville (@ksausville) March 16, 2015

Until tomorrow…

The Final Jeopardy! clue

KIDS’ TV CHARACTERS

MARQUEZ IS THE LAST NAME OF THIS CHARACTER WHO DEBUTED IN 2000

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