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February 13, 2015

…and now, for big second-place comebacks

In the first part of this post, we looked at situations in which third place came back to win on the final day of a two-day total-point affair – from any deficit. That’s happened just 7 times (and that’s counting Brad Rutter’s tied-for-second comeback in the UTOC).

As you might expect, the player in second after the first day has had more success. Still, that’s happened only 19 times, according to games in the J! Archive*, not including the aforementioned Rutter performance.Frank Spangenberg Tenth Anniversary comeback

Still, that means the player in the lead after the first day has won 51/77 times – nearly two-thirds of all tournaments.

Until Jeff Xie won the 2014 Teen Tournament – also on a tiebreaker – the previous second-place player to win was Patrick Quinn, who trailed by all of 211 points heading into the second game of the 2012 Teachers Tournament.

Here are the seven times a player came back from a deficit of at least 10,000 (in current values) to win the tournament.

*I know Amanda Goad also came back from second (3,600, pre-doubled) to win in a tiebreaker; I also pulled off the feat (down by a whopping 711), so the actual total is at least 21.

Frank Spangenberg, Tenth Anniversary Tournament

Trailed Tom Nosek by 13,000 (needed to lead by 6,500 on Day Two) – that’s 26,000 in today’s amounts!

Note that Leslie Frates trailed by 13,500, and had control of her destiny in Final Jeopardy!. I’ll look into situations like this in a future post, as hinted at previously.

Frank Spangenberg Tom Nosek Leslie Frates
D1 Pre-Final 7,600 6,800 6,800
D1 Final Wager 7,000 6,800 6,700
D1 Total 600 13,600 100
D2 Pre-Final 8,100 4,000 13,000
D2 Final Wager 8,100 4,000 8,601
D2 Total 16,200 0 4,399
Grand Total 16,800 13,600 4,499

David Walter, 2007 Teen Tournament

Trailed Ben Schenkel by 25,800 (needed to lead by 12,900 on Day Two)

It didn’t matter what Ben wagered on Day Two, despite having just 1,400 – he was totally at the mercy of David’s response.

Stephen Fritz Ben Schenkel David Walter
D1 Pre-Final 11,000 22,800 22,200
D1 Final Wager 5,537 17,200 8,000
D1 Total 5,463 40,000 14,200
D2 Pre-Final 10,000 1,400 23,400
D2 Final Wager 9,997 1,400 5,300
D2 Total 19,997 2,800 28,700
Grand Total 25,460 42,800 42,900

Joey Beachum, 2008 College Championship

Trailed Danielle Zsenak by 14,800 (needed to lead by 7,400 on Day Two)

Joey Beachum Andrew Chung Danielle Zsenak
D1 Pre-Final 7,600 18,000 15,000
D1 Final Wager 7,600 6,002 15,000
D1 Total 15,200 11,998 30,000
D2 Pre-Final 24,400 10,400 13,000
D2 Final Wager 6,800 10,400 3,000
D2 Total 31,200 0 16,000
Grand Total 46,400 11,998 46,000

Michael Falk, 2006 TOC

Trailed Vik Vaz by 13,400 (needed to lead by 6,700 on Day Two)

Bill MacDonald Michael Falk Vik Vaz
D1 Pre-Final 5,200 15,400 17,400
D1 Final Wager 5,200 2,000 13,400
D1 Total 0 17,400 30,800
D2 Pre-Final 10,400 23,600 9,200
D2 Final Wager 10,001 8,201 9,200
D2 Total 399 31,801 0
Grand Total 399 49,201 30,800

Andrew Hutchings, 1998 College Championship

Trailed Alex Weathers by 5,400 (needed to lead by 2,700 on Day Two)

Andrew still needed an incorrect response from Alex to win.

Alex Weathers Shane Underwood Andrew Hutchings
D1 Pre-Final 7,400 9,600 4,000
D1 Final Wager 6,000 7,100 4,000
D1 Total 13,400 2,500 8,000
D2 Pre-Final 7,500 1,000 8,800
D2 Final Wager 4,701 1,000 300
D2 Total 2,799 2,000 9,100
Grand Total 16,199 4,500 17,100

Russ Schumacher, 2004

Trailed Tom Walsh by 10,100 (needed to lead by 5,050 on Day Two)

Arthur Gandolfi Tom Walsh Russ Schumacher
D1 Pre-Final 7,200 16,700 13,200
D1 Final Wager 7,200 3,000 3,600
D1 Total 0 19,700 9,600
D2 Pre-Final 6,200 8,800 17,600
D2 Final Wager 6,200 3,000 10,250
D2 Total 12,400 11,800 27,850
Grand Total 12,400 31,500 37,450

Jeff Xie, 2014 Teen Tournament

Trailed Alan Koolik by 10,000 (needed to lead by 5,000 on Day Two); won on a tiebreaker

Cooper Lair Alan Koolik Jeff Xie
D1 Pre-Final 5,600 19,200 17,000
D1 Final Wager 5,400 5,800 2,000
D1 Total 200 25,000 15,000
D2 Pre-Final 15,600 14,600 19,600
D2 Final Wager 15,400 14,600 19,600
D2 Total 31,000 29,200 39,200
Grand Total 31,200 54,200 54,200
One Comment
  1. Blake permalink

    WH DID JOEY NOT COVER DANIELLE.

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