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January 21, 2015

The Final Wager – Wed 21 Jan 2015

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Getting this up a little late, but I have a good reason.The Final Wager – January 21, 2015

I was at the New York Transit Museum’s third annual Transit Trivia night, trying to help my team defend its second-place finish last year.

That happened to be the same night Arthur Chu tied, and the rest is history. Nothing quite that exciting Wednesday.

Daniel Grigg Erin Rhode Will Anderson
4,800 12,800 16,200

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

FICTION

This close to being a Shore’s Conjecture – Intermediate Form situation, but not quite. (Thanks to Shane for catching my mistake in the comments.)

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Erin doubles her score, she’ll have 25,600. To cover this all-in wager, Will will need to wager 9,400.

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Will with 6,800.

To stay above his total, Erin can wager up to 6,000. Daniel must respond correctly to have a shot, so all-in is the way to go.

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Daniel at 9,600. To stay above him, Erin can wager at most 3,200. Will could wager at most 6,600.

Second-order calculations

Quasi-Shoretegic wagers

If Erin chooses to stay above a double-up by Daniel, she will have at most 16,000.

Will can stay above that total by wagering no more than 200.

Second’s max vs. first

If Erin makes the rational maximum wager of 6,000, Will will need to wager 2,600 to cover her.

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 13,600. In that case, Erin would have to wager 800 and respond correctly.

Zero wagers

We take into account the difference between Erin and Will.

What actually happened

I don’t like the risk Will takes here – going for the tie.

Oh, by the way, we finished in fourth out of 36 teams. I faced off with Cerulean in one round and he lasted longer than I did. (I was unable to name the next stop eastbound on the M train from Hewes Street – I skipped over one.)

The Final Jeopardy! clue

FICTION

A LINE IN THIS SHORT STORY IS “SLOWLY, AWKWARDLY TRYING OUT HIS FEELERS, WHICH HE NOW FIRST LEARNED TO APPRECIATE…”

Correct response: Show

 

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3 Comments
  1. Shane permalink

    I’m not sure that this qualifies as a “Shore’s Conjecture” situation, since Erin can’t safely make a wager to cover a zero wager by Will without falling below Daniel, should he double up. Just my observation.

  2. Pat Russell permalink

    KOMO never did broadcast the show. They just pretended it never happened. Oh well.

    In the last 10 regular games (counting tonight) in which we had three players in Final Jeopardy we have the following result: In 1 case all three got it right = easy. 3 cases of 1 right + 3 cases of 2 right = 6 ok and 3 cases of 0 right = hard. So that’s a “final jeopardy degree of difficulty = just right” score of 60%. The “average degree of difficulty” score (higher is harder) stays at 1.80.

    No triple stumper today so the “no triple stumper on FJ” streak now stands at 2 days.

What do you think?