The Final Wager – Wed 24 Dec 2014

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Merry Christmas Eve! Cory and I discuss the etiquette of holding a beverage before digging into the evening’s action.

It’s anyone’s game heading into Final.

Avishai Gebler	Becca Allred	Brian Hamilton
10,600	7,600	12,000

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

OSCAR-WINNING ACTRESSES

Let’s see what each player should do. Remember, we save the dollar changes until the end.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Avishai doubles his score, he’ll have 21,200. To cover him, Brian will need to wager 9,200.

An incorrect response will leave Brian with 2,800. To stay above his total, Avishai can wager up to 7,800, and Becca can wager up to 4,800.

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Becca at 15,200. To cover this, Avishai should wager at least 4,600.

(Brian would need to wager at least 3,200, but it’s a risky move.)

I’m removing Becca’s larger maximum wager because it will be irrelevant.

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Avishai makes the rational maximum wager of 7,800, Brian will need to wager 6,400 to cover him.

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 5,600. To stay above him, Avishai can wager up to 5,000.

Brian should just go for the lockout rather than get cute.

Third’s max vs. second

Against Avishai, Becca can wager at most 1,600. With a correct response, she’ll have 9,200.

To stay above this, Avishai can wager at most 1,400. That would force Becca to respond correctly, so she might as well wager everything if she anticipates this smaller wager out of Avishai.

Zero wagers

Nothing really in the way of zero coverage here.

What actually happened

If I’m Becca – and Cory poses this question to me in the video – do I pick the small range or the large range? It all depends on what I think Avishai will do. Will he go big? Then I wager small and pull for both him and Brian to miss, because I have no hope otherwise.

If he’ll go small, however, then I must go in.

Becca picked wrong. It’s not a bad wager.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

OSCAR-WINNING ACTRESSES

WITH A TOTAL OF 5 WINS, THEY’RE THE ONLY 2 BEST ACTRESS WINNERS WHO WERE KNOWN PROFESSIONALLY BY THE SAME LAST NAME

 

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