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November 13, 2014

2014 TOC preview: Quarterfinal #5

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Our fifth and final match-up pits two 6-time champs in Jared Hall and Sandie Baker against the lone 4-timer, Mark Japinga, who dethroned Ben Ingram in regular play. This trio had to sit in the green room all day, waiting for their chance to get some fresh air – and a crack at the signaling devices.

Jared Sandie Mark

Let’s take a look at their wagering histories.

Jared Hall

6 wins, $181,001

Jared Hall Alex Trebek

Jared was my first-ever victim subject on The Final Wager; he entered Season 30 as a two-time champ, and won the first four games of the week before succumbing to exhaustion (most likely) on the Friday game.

Jared had locks in Games 1, 4 ($42,000), and 5.

(Complete list on The Final Wager and J! Archive)

Game 2 (July 26, 2013)

Jared Bruce Leigh
18,400 4,800 19,200
10,000 4,799 800
28,400 9,599 18,400

This is a risky wager, as it allows third back into the game. However, because this is the Strong Form of Shore’s Conjecture, it’s a great move if he thinks Leigh will go for the “Shoretegic” wager of 8,000. Bruce should really cap his wager at 3,200, which would bring him up to 8,000 if he’s right, giving Jared an advantage of 400 were he to miss.

Game 3 (September 16, 2013)

Jared Angela James
18,800 14,400 6,400
10,001 10,000 6,400
28,801 24,400 12,800

Simple lockout move.

Game 6 (September 19, 2013)

Jared Parth Hillary
10,000 13,600 4,800
10,000 6,401 2,400
20,000 7,199 7,200

This situation came before I had delved into mind games, so I gave Jared a bad mark here. Of course, he made the right move – Parth was a hard-sciences guy and the Final category was about pop music. Because Jared didn’t have 3/4 of Parth’s score, he couldn’t cover a seemingly likely zero wager, so he went all in.

Game 7 (September 20, 2013)

Jared Kellie Matt
2,200 4,400 20,200
2,200 0 4,800
0 4,400 15,400

Jared and Kellie both made the right plays here.

Sandie Baker

6 wins, $140,200

Sandie Baker Alex Trebek

Sandie’s original games were a lot of fun to watch, because she ran ragged over the competition while clearly enjoying the experience. And, counter to most players, she actually got stronger as she continued to play; she had locks in Games 4, 5, and 6, and a solid score in the lead in Game 7.

(Complete list on The Final Wager and J! Archive)

Game 1 (April 9, 2014)

Derrick Sandie Ed
6,800 12,400 15,900
6,500 10,000 8,901
300 22,400 6,999

I gave this a pink grade – Sandie won’t win if she’s wrong. 3,500–5,400 was my preferred range.

Game 2 (April 10, 2014)

Sandie Bruce Jessica
14,000 8,100 11,200
8,500 8,000 5,001
22,500 16,100 16,201

This is a wager-to-tie situation, since Jessica has exactly 4/5 of Sandie’s score. It’s weak, though, since Bruce forces Jessica to cover him.

Game 3 (April 11, 2014)

Sandie Rebecca Monique
13,400 11,800 6,700
10,300 11,800 6,700
23,700 23,600 0

Sandie, apparently, was another “go for the win +100” advocate. Julia Collins was in the audience for Sandie’s last three games, waiting to be called on; perhaps Sandie was her muse.

This situation, by the way, was another what I call “off-menu” wager-to-tie situation: A = 2*C and A-B > B-C. Don’t worry about it.

Game 7 (April 17, 2014)

Sandie Frédérique Kristin
15,400 6,200 13,200
11,100 0 13,199
4,300 6,200 1

Frédérique uses some cagey wagering (and an overbet by Kristin) to begin a two-win run – one that almost claimed challenger Julia Collins as a victim.

Mark Japinga

4 wins, $112,600

Mark Japinga Alex Trebek old

Mark Japinga (pronounced JAP-ing-uh; everyone screws it up, including Alex) is one of the most fearsome competitors in this year’s TOC. Not only did he unseat eight-timer Ben Ingram in his first game, he averaged over $28,000 in his four wins.

(Complete list on J! Archive)

Game 1 (July 11, 2013)

Ben Dawn Mark
14,400 21,000 15,600
3,600 0 15,599
18,000 21,000 31,199

Stratton’s Dilemma; Mark appropriately goes for everything.

Game 2 (July 12, 2013)

Mark Toby Ken
20,800 26,400 6,600
7,500 15,400 6,000
28,300 11,000 600

Shore’s Conjecture, Intermediate Form – and Mark throws out a perfect wager.

Game 3 (July 15, 2013)

Mark Bradley Deborah
16,700 5,600 8,600
501 5,599 8,101
17,201 11,199 16,701

Looking for the win +$1.

Game 4 (July 16, 2013)

Mark Jeffrey Amanda
20,900 17,600 3,600
15,000 14,000 3,600
35,900 31,600 7,200

Another high-scoring game, and another big wager.

Game 5 (July 17, 2013)

Mark Kerri John
10,400 15,600 7,200
10,400 5,000 3,201
0 10,600 3,999

Mark has exactly 2/3 of Kerri’s score; why Kerri didn’t add just 200 more to her wager is beyond me.

4 Comments
  1. My prediction: Jared wins this one by a RAZOR-THIN margin to Mark, while Sandie is behind Mark a few hundreds, perhaps. The two advance as wildcards, and promptly lose. Semis: Ben, Arthur, Julia win all three, and the highly-anticipated final arrives.

    • Richard Corliss permalink

      I don’t know that yet, but we’ll see

    • Blake permalink

      Well, your prediction is right for the QF but just switch Mark and Sandie.You are right about the semis too. GEEZ!!!!

  2. I’ve never screwed up Mark’s last name JAP-ing-uh-JAPINGA.

What do you think?