2014 TOC preview: Quarterfinal #2
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Tuesday brings us the first test of the media’s dream match-up, as Arthur Chu takes the stage.
He’ll be joined by 6-time champ Andrew Moore, who was scorching the competition at a similar rate until getting tripped up in his seventh game, and Rani Peffer, a 5-timer from exactly a year ago who comes in with the field-low total of regular winnings.
Click here to see what happened.
Let’s look at their more telling wagers.
Arthur Chu
11 wins, $297,200
Arthur was the biggest – and with the exception of Bill Tolany in a wager-to-tie situation, the only – proponent of wagering to tie for most of the first season of The Final Wager. And what a proponent he was, giving this blog a lot of publicity; also, if rumors are correct, the attention will force the Jeopardy! producers to eliminate ties starting November 24.
Arthur had locks in Games 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 (when he took home $58,200), 10, and 11. (Complete list on The Final Wager and J! Archive)
Game 1 (January 28, 2014)
Julie | Arthur | Cesar |
18,600 | 20,000 | 9,000 |
18,400 | 17,200 | 9,000 |
200 | 37,200 | 0 |
Arthur showed his wagering hand in the first game, offering a strong champion a tie…
Game 2 (January 29, 2014)
Arthur | Erik | Carolyn |
18,200 | 8,400 | 13,400 |
8,600 | 8,400 | 13,400 |
26,800 | 0 | 26,800 |
…which Carolyn Collins – no relation to Julia – noticed, and she cashed in. The rest is history.
Game 9 (February 28, 2014)
Arthur | Semret | Dawn |
22,400 | 11,400 | 7,400 |
400 | 10,600 | 4,001 |
22,800 | 22,000 | 11,401 |
Pretty obvious example of why wagering to tie dominates adding the extra dollar: Arthur would have tied had he missed, because Semret – who himself would have tied had he gone all in, as he was supposed to – made a sub-optimal wager.
Game 12 (March 12, 2014)
Arthur | Julie | Diana |
6,400 | 7,800 | 12,100 |
6,400 | 5,100 | 3,600 |
0 | 2,700 | 15,700 |
The proper wager to end his regular run.
Andrew Moore
6 wins, $137,803
Many people see Andrew as a dark horse to win this tournament; this includes several contestants I spoke to the day before filming began. A correct Final response in his seventh game would have added $42,801 to an already impressive total.
Andrew had locks in Games 3 and 4, and led and went for the extra dollar in Games 1, 2, and 5. (Complete list on J! Archive)
Game 6 (June 24, 2013)
Andrew | Britta | Joel |
16,800 | 7,100 | 10,600 |
10,000 | 2,500 | 6,200 |
6,800 | 4,600 | 4,400 |
A somewhat dangerous decision here, operating on the assumption Joel and Britta will both wager rationally – that is to say, everything. (He was right, so can’t fault him too much.)
Game 7 (June 25, 2013)
Andrew | Padraic | John |
26,400 | 21,400 | 5,200 |
16,401 | 10,000 | 5,199 |
9,999 | 11,400 | 1 |
Some big-time scores in a Shore’s Conjecture, Strong Form situation, and Andrew took control of his own destiny. (The proper Shore’s wager would have been 6,000; Padraic had a perfect Rule #3 continued wager, covering a “Colbyesque” play out of Andrew.)
Rani Peffer
5 wins, $68,701
Between her laid-back demeanor and her charming accent, Rani won over a lot of fans, including yours truly. Her winnings were meager compared with the rest of the field, yes, but she showed that she could be aggressive, a critical risk any underdog needs to take at some point or another. (Remember Roger Craig in the Battle of the Decades Finals?)
Rani had a lock in Game 3, and wagered for the lockout +$11 in Game 5. (Complete list on The Final Wager and J! Archive)
Game 1 (November 5, 2013)
Woody | Rani | Carole |
10,600 | 7,200 | 5,600 |
3,801 | 7,111 | 1,601 |
6,799 | 14,311 | 3,999 |
Properly going for broke (almost).
Game 2 (November 6, 2013)
Rani | Kellie | Evan |
9,600 | 6,600 | 7,200 |
4,801 | 6,600 | 7,200 |
14,401 | 13,200 | 14,400 |
Perhaps Rani should have withheld the dollar here in case Evan wagered zero; he had exactly 2/3 of her score, although his wager was more or less forced by the presence of Kellie.
Game 4 (November 8, 2013)
Rani | Amanda | Vimal |
7,800 | 10,200 | 12,000 |
7,777 | 10,200 | 8,401 |
15,577 | 0 | 3,599 |
A bit too aggressive here, but it worked out in the end. (I suggested she wager between 2,400 and 3,000.)
Game 6 (November 26, 2013)
Rani | Mike | Janel |
14,600 | 20,200 | -1,800 |
14,599 | 9,010 | |
1 | 29,210 |
In a mind-games scenario where covering a zero wager was not an option, Rani chose to go big – consistent with the rest of her wagering history.
In Rani Peffer’s second game it was an exact 3/4, not an exact 2/3, game (her 9,600 and Evan’s 7,200).