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November 10, 2014

2014 TOC preview: Quarterfinal #2

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Tuesday brings us the first test of the media’s dream match-up, as Arthur Chu takes the stage.

He’ll be joined by 6-time champ Andrew Moore, who was scorching the competition at a similar rate until getting tripped up in his seventh game, and Rani Peffer, a 5-timer from exactly a year ago who comes in with the field-low total of regular winnings.

Click here to see what happened.

Arthur Andrew Rani

Let’s look at their more telling wagers.

Arthur Chu

11 wins, $297,200

Arthur Chu Alex Trebek

Arthur was the biggest – and with the exception of Bill Tolany in a wager-to-tie situation, the only – proponent of wagering to tie for most of the first season of The Final Wager. And what a proponent he was, giving this blog a lot of publicity; also, if rumors are correct, the attention will force the Jeopardy! producers to eliminate ties starting November 24.

Arthur had locks in Games 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 (when he took home $58,200), 10, and 11. (Complete list on The Final Wager and J! Archive)

Game 1 (January 28, 2014)

Julie Arthur Cesar
18,600 20,000 9,000
18,400 17,200 9,000
200 37,200 0

Arthur showed his wagering hand in the first game, offering a strong champion a tie…

Game 2 (January 29, 2014)

Arthur Erik Carolyn
18,200 8,400 13,400
8,600 8,400 13,400
26,800 0 26,800

…which Carolyn Collins – no relation to Julia – noticed, and she cashed in. The rest is history.

Game 9 (February 28, 2014)

Arthur Semret Dawn
22,400 11,400 7,400
400 10,600 4,001
22,800 22,000 11,401

Pretty obvious example of why wagering to tie dominates adding the extra dollar: Arthur would have tied had he missed, because Semret – who himself would have tied had he gone all in, as he was supposed to – made a sub-optimal wager.

Game 12 (March 12, 2014)

Arthur Julie Diana
6,400 7,800 12,100
6,400 5,100 3,600
0 2,700 15,700

The proper wager to end his regular run.

Andrew Moore

6 wins, $137,803

Andrew Moore Alex Trebek

Many people see Andrew as a dark horse to win this tournament; this includes several contestants I spoke to the day before filming began. A correct Final response in his seventh game would have added $42,801 to an already impressive total.

Andrew had locks in Games 3 and 4, and led and went for the extra dollar in Games 1, 2, and 5. (Complete list on J! Archive)

Game 6 (June 24, 2013)

Andrew Britta Joel
16,800 7,100 10,600
10,000 2,500 6,200
6,800 4,600 4,400

A somewhat dangerous decision here, operating on the assumption Joel and Britta will both wager rationally – that is to say, everything. (He was right, so can’t fault him too much.)

Game 7 (June 25, 2013)

Andrew Padraic John
26,400 21,400 5,200
16,401 10,000 5,199
9,999 11,400 1

Some big-time scores in a Shore’s Conjecture, Strong Form situation, and Andrew took control of his own destiny. (The proper Shore’s wager would have been 6,000; Padraic had a perfect Rule #3 continued wager, covering a “Colbyesque” play out of Andrew.)

Rani Peffer

5 wins, $68,701

Rani Peffer Alex Trebek

Between her laid-back demeanor and her charming accent, Rani won over a lot of fans, including yours truly. Her winnings were meager compared with the rest of the field, yes, but she showed that she could be aggressive, a critical risk any underdog needs to take at some point or another. (Remember Roger Craig in the Battle of the Decades Finals?)

Rani had a lock in Game 3, and wagered for the lockout +$11 in Game 5. (Complete list on The Final Wager and J! Archive)

Game 1 (November 5, 2013)

Woody Rani Carole
10,600 7,200 5,600
3,801 7,111 1,601
6,799 14,311 3,999

Properly going for broke (almost).

Game 2 (November 6, 2013)

Rani Kellie Evan
9,600 6,600 7,200
4,801 6,600 7,200
14,401 13,200 14,400

Perhaps Rani should have withheld the dollar here in case Evan wagered zero; he had exactly 2/3 of her score, although his wager was more or less forced by the presence of Kellie.

Game 4 (November 8, 2013)

Rani Amanda Vimal
7,800 10,200 12,000
7,777 10,200 8,401
15,577 0 3,599

A bit too aggressive here, but it worked out in the end. (I suggested she wager between 2,400 and 3,000.)

Game 6 (November 26, 2013)

Rani Mike Janel
14,600 20,200 -1,800
14,599 9,010
1 29,210

In a mind-games scenario where covering a zero wager was not an option, Rani chose to go big – consistent with the rest of her wagering history.

One Comment
  1. Kelly permalink

    In Rani Peffer’s second game it was an exact 3/4, not an exact 2/3, game (her 9,600 and Evan’s 7,200).

What do you think?