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October 1, 2014

Daily analysis, Wednesday, October 1

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Greetings once again from sunny California, where I am still without my video cord. You’ll just have to wait for the video, instead.The Final Wager – October 1, 2014

A similar situation to last night heading into Final.

Elisa Korb: 16,800
Sara Goodman: 8,200
Josh Hager: 13,100

The Final Jeopardy! category: U.S. CITY FIRSTS

Let’s break it down.

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Elisa should wager 9,400 to cover Josh.

Josh can wager up to 5,700 to stay above Elisa if they’re both wrong.

Sara can wager up to 800 to stay above Elisa should they both miss.

Basic strategy – second vs. third

Josh should wager at least 3,300 to cover a double-up by Sara.

Sara would need to wager 1,600 to account for this, but since she’d lose to Elisa if she’s wrong, if she chooses this route she should bet it all.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Josh should up his minimum to 3,700 to cover a zero by Elisa.

Note also that Elisa could wager 400 to stay above Sara – this will be a factor in mind games, but I don’t know that I’d recommend it in general.

Mind games – first vs. second

If Josh wagers 5,700, he’ll have 18,800, so Elisa could wager 2,000 to cover this possibility.

If he’s scared of this (or another erratic wager, given her history!) out of Elisa, Josh could go for everything.

Mind games – second vs. third

If Sara wagers that smaller range, she’ll have 9,000. Josh should cap his main wager at 4,100.

Sara should almost certainly go for everything at this point.

Mind games – Rule #3

If Elisa goes for this smaller wager, she should cap it at 3,700 to stay above a zero wager by Josh.

What actually happened

The Final Jeopardy! clue

U.S. CITY FIRSTS

AMONG ITS FIRSTS ARE UNDERWATER AUTO TUNNEL TO A FOREIGN COUNTRY & CORPORATION TO NET MORE THAN $1 BILLION IN A SINGLE YEAR

Correct response: Show

 

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One Comment
  1. Blake permalink

    If Elisa did not like the category, couldn’t she cap at 400 not to fall below Sara’s doubled score?

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