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September 19, 2014

Daily analysis, Friday, September 19

⇦ Season 30same week following week
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I’m guessing we’ll end this week with a double lock.The Final Wager – September 19, 2014

Not so fast! It’s a tight one – and everyone’s still in contention.

Bill Cossen: 11,400
Matthew Price: 11,200
Stephanie Bilyeu: 8,800

The Final Jeopardy! category: MOVIES ABOUT MOVIES

Stephanie had a Penultimate Wager, which I dissected later.

Let’s start with the basics.

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Bill should wager 11,000 to cover Matthew.

Matthew can wager up to 10,800 to stay above Bill if they’re both wrong.

Stephanie can wager up to 8,400 to stay above Bill should they both miss.

Basic strategy – second vs. third

Matthew should wager at least 6,400 to cover Stephanie.

Stephanie, anticipating this, should cap her wager at 4,000.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Matthew should wager at least 400 to cover an unsafe wager by Bill, although there’s no reason to think he might do this.

Stephanie should wager at least 2,600 on the low side, and at least 5,200 if she goes high.

Mind games – first vs. second

Bill shouldn’t anticipate mind games out of both his opponents, so he should stand with the lockout wager.

There is a remote possibility he’ll wager the “unsafe” 200, so maybe Stephanie adds that amount to her lower-range minimum wager (instead of just 2,600). No real reason to suspect Bill will do that, though.

Mind games – second vs. third

If he thinks Stephanie will go for the 4,000 wager, Matthew might make his new alternative minimum 1,600.

What actually happened

Eeeeeee. Bill’s wager is the only one I like here. Regardless, we’ll see Matthew back on Monday!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

MOVIES ABOUT MOVIES

THE TITLE CHARACTER OF THIS 2013 FILM WAS PLAYED BY DAVID TOMLINSON, WHO WAS ACTUALLY SEEN ONLY IN CLIPS FROM A 1964 FILM

Correct response: Show

 

⇦ Season 30same week following week
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6 Comments
  1. Joe Taglic permalink

    Hey Keith, pretty sure Stephanie’s min wager is 2,4 not 2,6 – tiny math error/typo probably. Also makes her big minimum 4,8 if I’m not mistaken?

    • Hey Joe – the 2,600/5,200 is to cover Bill.

      • Joe Taglic permalink

        Wow that’s what I get for reading wagering analyses at 3:14 am… You’re right as usual!

      • She should really wager at least 2,800, on the extremely remote chance Bill pulls a Colby

      • Joe Taglic permalink

        Agreed, the extra two hundred won’t matter if she gets it wrong but if Bill wagers poorly on the low side (a very unlikely occurrence with two opponents so close in score) she has a shot at seeing a day two.

  2. Kelly permalink

    Given your own influence on wagering, if Matthew was facing an opponent he saw for the first time I’d give his all-in bet an orange (same thing with 2nd in other games – but not a dollar less!). Since Bill has a record of adding a dollar on I agree with you here though (maximum optimal wager of 10,800).

What do you think?