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September 15, 2014

Daily analysis, Monday, September 15

⇦ Season 30same week following week
1516171819 2223242526

We’re back for season 2! And the ‘stache – mine, anyway – is in not-so-full effect.

Before I begin, a brief programming note. While I’ll continue to analyze each night’s game, I won’t be making as many videos this season. I’ll still do at least one a week, focused on the scenario(s) I found most complicated.

Of course, if someone does something really stupid, you can expect the full visual wrath of The Final Wager.

Now, on to the show…

Winston Nguyen: 7,000
Elizabeth Williams: 13,400
Steve Lozano: 6,000

The Final Jeopardy! category: AUTHORS

We’re easing back in to the math with a simple situation.

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Elizabeth should wager 600 to cover a double-up by Winston.

Winston needs to get it right to have a shot, so he might as well wager everything. At a bare minimum, he’ll have to put up 5,800.

Steve can’t catch Elizabeth, so he should focus on second.

Basic strategy – second vs. third

Winston will have at most 1,200 on a miss.

Steve should aim to have no less than 1,201 – remember, a tie for second goes to the player who had the lead going into Final. Steve’s maximum, therefore, is 4,799.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Technically, Steve should wager at least 2,001 to cover an “unsafe” wager by Winston, but the likelihood Winston won’t go for the win is (nearly) non-existent.

What actually happened

What the what?! A tie wager on the first day? Someone did her homework.

Elizabeth becomes the sixth consecutive one-day champion. The carousel begins to turn…

The Final Jeopardy! clue

AUTHORS

IN 1937 HIS SISTER SAID HE HAD “HATS OF EVERY DESCRIPTION” WHICH HE WOULD USE AS A “FOUNDATION OF HIS NEXT BOOK”

Correct response: Show

 

⇦ Season 30same week following week
1516171819 2223242526
2 Comments
  1. Greg permalink

    Too bad Winston did not lose by that $2. I enjoy seeing improper wagering punished immediately. Glad you’re back, and recommend adding a goatee. The solo ‘stache is hard to pull off IMHO. In the first part of the text, you have Winston’s and Steve’s names switched. :)

    • Ah, thanks – I messed around with my wagering calculator and forgot to flip one formula. And yes, the $2 loss would have been most excellent. (*devil horns*)

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