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July 15, 2014

Daily analysis, Tuesday, July 15

Day Two of playing with sound effects on my video. I kinda hope this guy keeps winning forever!The Final Wager – July 15, 2014

He’s in rough shape heading into Final tonight, unfortunately.

Ben-Hur Flores: 6,400
Ed Patterson: 17,800
Anna Lawrence: 14,200

The Final Jeopardy! category: U.S. GOVERNMENT PEOPLE

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Ed should wager 10,600.

If he’s wrong, he’ll have 7,200, so Anna can wager up to 7,000, and Ben-Hur needs to get it right, so he ought to wager everything.

Basic strategy – second vs. third

Anna can guarantee that she beats Ben-Hur with a wager of no more than 1,400.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Anna can cover a zero wager by Ed by wagering 3,600.

Covering an “unsafe” wager from Ed will require risking 7,200, which is too much. (If she’s scared of this possibility for some reason, she could wager everything.)

Anna is in a predicament here. She can guarantee a win against Ben-Hur, but lose to a zero wager by Ed; or, she can cover Ed’s zero wager, but let Ben-Hur back into contention.

Mind games – first vs. second

Anna has two possible wagers.

Anna wagers up to 7,000

Ed could cover this with a wager of 3,400.

If he’s wrong, he’ll have 14,400, so Anna should wager at least 200.

Anna wagers up to 1,400

She’ll have at most 15,600, so Ed could wager up to 2,200.

A correct response with that wager will give him at most 20,000, so Anna could cover that with a wager of 5,800.

What actually happened

And that’s exactly what Anna did. But did she mean to do it – or was she aiming for Ben-Hur’s lucky amount? We may never know.

She did miss out on a chance to tie, since Ed left off the extra dollar. My hunch is that we could see an all-in out of second tomorrow if Ed goes into Final with the lead (and can be caught).

The Final Jeopardy! clue for July 15, 2014 (U.S. GOVERNMENT PEOPLE):

A COMMITTEE CHAIRED BY THE OFFICIAL IN THIS JOB RELEASED THE INFLUENTIAL 1964 REPORT “SMOKING AND HEALTH”

Correct response: Show

 

2 Comments
  1. Mike Doskas permalink

    The past couple of weeks has seen an unusual number of offers to tie, as opposed to the traditional win-by-1 shutout wager from the leader. The Chu/finalwager bounce? I’m not sure if this will continue, but in any case maybe 2nd place should always consider an all-in wager even from a non-crush (above 2/3rds) position, especially if (a) the leader has previously offered a tie which 2nd place has seen; and (b) the category is in 2nd place’s wheelhouse. Anna would have been co-champion today if she had (I know, small sample size!).

    Actually, this is a side effect of your wagering to tie from the lead position strategy which I noticed during Arthur’s run. If the leader always offers the tie like Arthur, 2nd is encouraged to go all-in, which gives the leader extra chances in the case of a TS or DS, with no real downside (except the buzzer/game experience of tomorrow’s opponents issue).

    • There’s another strategy I haven’t yet mentioned: if the leader is convinced he’s enticed the second-place player to wager everything, he can tack on the extra dollar to knock out the experienced opponent!

What do you think?