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July 14, 2014

Daily analysis, Monday, July 14

Will someone put spikes into the wheels of our two-time defending champion?The Final Wager – July 14, 2014

I just gotta say: Ben-Hur might be the coolest name I’ve ever heard. It’s certainly much better than mine.

He’s got the lead heading into this last clue.

Jen Fiero: 13,400
Virginia Hatfield: 4,400
Ben-Hur Flores: 16,200

The Final Jeopardy! category: LITERARY TITLE WORDS

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Ben-Hur will take his destiny into his own hands with a wager of 10,600.

Jen should cap her wager at 7,800, but Virginia should wager everything, since she must be right to have a chance.

Basic strategy – second vs. third

Jen should cap her wager at 4,600 so as not to fall below Virginia, who’s committed to wagering everything.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Jen should wager at least 2,800 to cover a zero wager by Ben-Hur.

We can see from Jen’s range that this is a Shore’s Conjecture situation: she can both (1) cover a zero wager by Ben-Hur AND (2) stay above a double-up by Virginia. (Here’s my tutorial.)

This is the Intermediate Form, since Virginia must get it right to catch a lockout wager by Ben-Hur.

Mind games – first vs. second

Jen has two rational maximum wagers: 4,600 (preferable) and 7,800 (alternative).

Jen wagers 4,600

Ben-Hur should put up 1,800. (This is the Shoretegic wager.)

If Ben-Hur does that, Jen will need to get it right to have a shot, so no further improvement to her wager is possible.

Note that Ben-Hur will want to cap this wager at 2,800 so as not to fall below Jen’s pre-Final total if he misses.

Jen wagers 7,800

Note that this puts her at risk of losing to Virginia – but it does cover that 1,800 wager out of Ben-Hur.

In this case, Ben-Hur should wager 5,000.

If Ben-Hur does that, Jen should cap her wager at 2,200.

I have another method for approaching Shore’s Conjecture, which I will discuss in Part Two of that tutorial.

What actually happened

Jen continues the streak of players seeking the tie, this time with third place.

This is a bad wager by Ben-Hur, who’s aiming for the mythical 20,000 mark (what is it with that total?). Although it does cover a Shoretegic wager by Jen, it will lose to her should she, for whatever reason, stand pat. Anything between 1,800 and 2,800 will keep him above Jen’s pre-Final total while succeeding at mind games.

We’ll see if someone throws the 20,000 amount back in his face tomorrow.

Special thanks to my mom, Katherine, for providing me with the details for tonight’s game while I was on the road.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for July 14, 2014 (LITERARY TITLE WORDS):


Correct response: Show


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