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June 30, 2014

Daily analysis, Monday, June 30

After tonight’s analysis, I’ll have to change a few lines of code to account for a new month. (Can you believe it’s July already?)The Final Wager - June 30, 2014

I was hoping Ben would go HAM on that Colonies Daily Double — a limited set of responses and fairly easy clues leading up to it. He settled for $4,000, around a third of his score, and now he trails on the way into Final.

Jill Rowley: 18,800
Melinda Dudley: 7,300
Ben Zimmer: 15,800

The Final Jeopardy! category: 1970s FILMS

Did we ever find out who made the face about the category? That was a strange comment from Alex.

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Jill should wager 12,800.

To remain above her, Ben can wager up to 9,800, and Melinda can wager up to 1,300.

Basic strategy – second vs. third

Ben can wager up to 1,200 to stay above Melinda regardless.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Ben should wager 3,000 to cover a zero wager by Melinda, and 6,000 to cover her “unsafe” wager. He should also cap his “large” wager at 8,500 so as not to fall below Melinda’s pre-Final total.

Mind games

This is one of those crazy equilibria where everyone should wager to tie, but there’s little reason to believe anyone will see it.

Let’s assume Melinda wagers 1,300. Ben should further cap his wager at 7,200.

If he’s right with that wager, he’ll have 23,000 — which Jill can cover with a wager of 4,200.

If Jill misses with that 4,200 wager, she’ll have exactly double Melinda’s pre-Final total, so Melinda should wager everything.

Jill can also go for a smaller wager of up to 1,800 if she thinks Ben will go really small.

What actually happened

I really don’t like Melinda’s wager — she wouldn’t have won in any event against Ben, and gives herself no chance against Jill if she gets it wrong.

I’m cold on Ben’s, too. If you’re going to let second back into play, you might as well maximize your upside potential.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for June 30, 2014 (1970s FILMS):

IN 2013 MARIO CUOMO SAID HE FINALLY SAW THIS FILM, WHICH HE HAD BOYCOTTED FOR PERSONAL REASONS, & CALLED IT “MAYBE…A MASTERPIECE”

Correct response: Show

 

3 Comments
  1. RDS permalink

    What did you mean by “Ben would have to go “HAM” on that Colonies Daily Double”, on your June 30, 2014 post? What is “HAM”?

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