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June 17, 2014

Daily analysis, Tuesday, June 17

We’ve had some unfortunate wagers out of our leaders the past week. Will we see more of the same this evening?The Final Wager - June 17, 2014

Two of our last three leaders failed to take their destinies into their own hands, and paid for it as a result. Hat-tip to Daniel Olson for pointing this out.

We have another tight situation this evening, with plenty of mind games for everyone.

Andrea West: 4,800
Paige Ormiston: 17,200
Peter Solderitsch: 15,500

The Final Jeopardy! category: 19th CENTURY NOVEL CHARACTERS

Wagering enthusiasts will instantly recognize this as the Strong Form of Shore’s Conjecture — meaning Paige might have cause to wager smaller than the lock-out bet.

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Paige should wager 13,800 to win on a correct response.

Peter should cap his wager at 12,100

Andrea should similarly limit herself to 1,400.

Basic strategy – second vs. third

Peter can wager up to 5,900 to guarantee a victory against Andrea.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Peter should wager at least 1,700 to cover a zero by Paige, and at least 3,400 to cover her potential “unsafe” wager.

Let the fun begin.

Mind games

Will Peter wager 5,900? If Paige thinks so, she might wager 4,200.

Peter, in response, could go for at most 2,500 to win if they’re both wrong.

Further into the rabbit-hole: Paige could go for 800. We’re getting a bit too deep now for my liking.

Note that Andrea is justified in wagering up to 1,400 to beat Paige. If Peter thinks Andrea might do this, he could up his wager to 9,300. (Not a likely outcome, given Andrea’s terrible wager yesterday.)

Already getting too convoluted, but Paige could then cap her wager at 7,600.

Finally, Andrea could wager everything to account for the possibility Peter lets her back into contention. She could also just stand pat and hope for big bets out of her two opponents.

What actually happened

I tried to figure out what Peter intended but I failed. Note that if Paige had missed, Peter would have ceded the game to Andrea for no reason.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for June 17, 2014 (19th CENTURY NOVEL CHARACTERS):


Correct response: Show


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