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June 16, 2014

Daily analysis, Monday, June 16

We’ve got some things to discuss this evening.

Our two-day champ Katie goes for the hat trick this Monday. She’s got the lead heading into Final.

Katie Frank: 13,000
Andrea West: 11,800
Andrew Winner: 5,600

The Final Jeopardy! category: WORD ORIGINS

There’s a lot available here.

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Katie should wager 10,600.

Andrea can wager up to 9,400.

Andrew should cap his wager at 3,200.

Basic strategy – second vs. third

Andrea can wager up to 600 to stay above Andrew regardless.

Here’s where things get interesting.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Andrea needs to wager 1,200 to cover a zero by Katie, and 2,400 to cover an “unsafe” wager by her.

Mind games

Katie might wager any of the following against Andrea:

  • 8,200 (to cover Andrea’s 9,400 wager);
  • 5,000 (to cover Andrea’s 6,200 wager, although countering a Rule #3 wager is less convincing); or
  • up to 600 (if Andrea goes small).

Andrea might counter Andrew’s max 3,200 wager with a wager of up to 3,000.

Andrew might go for broke.

What actually happened

Andrea is rewarded for some picking some random number. Sorry, Katie — you put some good thought into it, and it didn’t work out.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for June 16, 2014 (WORD ORIGINS):

THIS NOUN MEANING A SECRET PLAN COMES FROM THE LATIN FOR “TO BREATHE TOGETHER”

Correct response: Show

 

3 Comments
  1. I think you give Katie too much credit, to be honest. She’s picked random numbers her last two days and I think her random number today seems to just happen to match a number reached by some second-degree thinking.

  2. Greg permalink

    What are your thoughts on Katie’s last DD (the antepenultimate wager)? She had $12000 against Andrea’s $11800, facing a $800 level question with only the $400 clue left to go. She wagered only $1000 and got it right, opening up only a small separation for FJ where she got tripped up in the mind games. If she’d bet large there, she’d have eliminated some of Andrea’s mind game options, and could have even locked up the game with a true daily double. Granted, a TDD would require supreme confidence, but with two wins in hand, might be worth the gamble?

    • It was poor. If she wanted to stay small, she should have wagered between 200 and 600 to (1) guarantee at least a share of the lead if right and (2) stay within range to take it back on the final DJ! clue.

      Of course, I think most of us were yelling at her to wager a huge amount given the level of the clue.

What do you think?