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June 13, 2014

Daily analysis, Friday, June 13

I’ve got a guest star this evening! Everyone’s favorite.The Final Wager - June 13, 2014

My brother, Cory, was in town for the evening and was game, as always, to provide his analysis of this very intriguing situation.

Alongside some whiskey, of course.

Katie Frank: 18,400
Shelby O’Neill: 400
Whitney Marshall: 20,000

The Final Jeopardy! category: FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Shelby’s barely alive, and won’t be a factor in Final. (It’s a very weak form of Shore’s Conjecture.)

If you’re interested in knowing where Whitney and Katie fall in terms of break points: they’re between 11/12 and 12/13. (If you haven’t watched my latest video explaining this concept, please click on that link.)

Basic strategy – first vs. second

Whitney should wager 16,800 to cover Katie.

Katie should cap hers at 15,200.

Basic strategy – Rule #3

Katie should wager at least 3,200 to cover an “unsafe” wager by Whitney.

Mind games

This is a tough situation for Whitney, if he decides to go for less than the lockout wager. To maximize his chances of outsmarting Katie, he’ll have to predict fairly accurately where she’ll go.

Here’s what I’ll call the “mind games ladder” of best responses depending on what the other player does. Of course, neither player knows what the other will do.

Final Jeopardy wagering June 13, 2014 ladder

Note how each “level” of response wager is 1,600 less than the previous wager. This is the difference between the two scores.

What actually happened

Katie wagered 10,000, which is not a “rung” on the ladder, but very hard to defend regardless. Had Whitney known she’d wager this amount, his optimal wager would have been between 8,400 and 11,600.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for June 13, 2014 (FOREIGN AFFAIRS):

WILLIAM SULLIVAN RETIRED FROM THE FOREIGN SERVICE IN 1979; HE WAS THE LAST U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THIS COUNTRY

Correct response: Show

 

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