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May 7, 2014

Daily analysis, Wednesday, May 7 – Battle of the Decades, QF #3

Battle of the Decades – knockout rounds
Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2
preliminary round

Brad Rutter is putting his “never lost to a human” streak on the line against two great champions in Mark Lowenthal and Dan Pawson. Will he defend?

Check out my preview.The Final Wager - May 7, 2014

Yes, and with authority: not many players have the guts to go for a 10k Daily Double wager with the game firmly in control.

Mark Lowenthal: 1,800
Brad Rutter: 32,400
Dan Pawson: 10,200

The Final Jeopardy! category: SUPREME COURT DECISIONS

Only Dan has a tricky decision.

Brad should just wager 0 and start thinking about next week.

Dan has the tough spot; where does he think the cut-off will be? Wagering to stay above Mark regardless (6,600) will likely leave him with an insufficient total to advance, so in that case he might as well go for broke.

Mark should wager everything.

All three players missed, and all three did what they needed to do.

Each day I’ll update the standings with my estimated chances of advancing for the wild-card candidates. These are based on past data compiled for my tutorial.

Quarterfinal winners:

Roger Craig
Russ Schumacher
Brad Rutter

Wild-card standings, with estimated probability of advancing in parentheses:

Leszek Pawlowicz:  15,000 (99%)
Pam Mueller:  14,798 (85%)
Tom Nosek: 2,400 (~0%)
Dan Pawson: 399 (~0%)
Mark Lowenthal: 300 (eliminated)
Robin Carroll:  0 (eliminated)

The Final Jeopardy! clue for May 7, 2014 (SUPREME COURT DECISIONS):

ON DECEMBER 20, 1956 THE COURT’S RULING ON BROWDER v. GAYLE WENT INTO EFFECT, BRINGING AN END TO THIS 381-DAY EVENT

Correct response: What is the Montgomery Bus Boycott?

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