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April 10, 2014

Daily analysis, Thursday, April 10

Our players have kept me busy so far this week. Will I get a break tonight?

Nope! Unfortunately, Bruce didn’t go for a wager of 400 on that last Daily Double, which, after no one answered the remaining 2,000 clue, would have resulted in an evenly-spaced scores scenario. Just gimme a wager-to-tie situation!

Sandie Baker: 14,000
Bruce Leaman: 8,100
Jessica Guard: 11,200

The Final Jeopardy! category: FOREIGN LEADERS

Let’s look at the math.

Basic strategy

Sandie should wager 8,400 to cover Jessica.

Jessica should wager at least 5,000 to cover Bruce, and no more than 5,600 to stay above Sandie. But notice that she trails Sandie by 2,800, so to cover an “unsafe” wager, Jessica should wager at least 5,600 – meaning she MUST wager 5,600.

Ah, so we DO have a wager-to-tie scenario on our hands!

Bruce should wager no more than 1,900 to keep above both of his opponents on a triple-stumper.

Mind games

It’s been a long time since we’ve had one of these. The trick here is Jessica has exactly 4/5 of Sandie’s score. It’s not one of the scenarios I discuss in Part Two, but we were able to derive it from the addition and subtraction.

Sandie has strong reason to wager 2,800 exactly: it forces both of the other players to get it right to beat her. Assuming Jessica wagers properly, they’ll tie if they both get it right or if they both get it wrong.

Jessica can’t improve on the 5,600 wager, unless she thinks Sandie will wager 8,400 exactly. In that case, she can go all-in.

Bruce, if he’s scared of a 2,800 wager by Sandie, should wager everything.

No one recognized the scenario, except for Bruce – maybe. Sad.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for April 10, 2014 (FOREIGN LEADERS):

IN 1964 HE WAS CONVICTED OF SABOTAGE & CONSPIRACY & SERVED OVER 20 YEARS IN PRISON

Correct response: Who was Nelson Mandela?

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