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April 8, 2014

Daily analysis, Tuesday, April 8

This is the first regular game in many moons where I actually understand what all three players do for a living!

Another tight race for first – but unlike yesterday, third place is way behind. We’ll see how our players handle this special situation.

Michelle Leppert: 12,600
Annalisa Srivatsan: 2,600
Derrick Shivar: 11,800

The Final Jeopardy! category: MUSIC MAKERS

Annalisa should be, effectively, eliminated – but as we know, players don’t always wager well, despite my best efforts.

Basic strategy

Michelle should wager 11,000 to guarantee herself the victory with a correct response.

Derrick should wager at least 1,600 (Rule #3 against Michelle) and no more than 6,600 (Rule #2 against Annalisa – guaranteeing he won’t lose to her). Because he can cover both of these bases with a single wager, we have a scenario known as Shore’s Conjecture.

Annalisa should wager no more than 1,000 to stay above Michelle if they both get it wrong.

Mind games

If Michelle thinks Derrick will wager no more than 6,600 to guarantee a win against Annalisa, she should wager 5,800.

In response, Derrick should cap his wager at 5,000 so as not to fall below Michelle if they’re both wrong. (Michelle could respond with that in mind, but it’s not worth the risk to her, in my opinion.)

If he thinks Annalisa will wager properly, Derrick has one other possibility: 8,200. If he’s incorrect, this will drop him to 3,600 – the maximum Annalisa can have with her “correct” wager.

TALK TO ME IN THE MORNING.

But before I punch a wall, let me illustrate why you don’t wager more than you absolutely have to:

The Final Jeopardy! clue for April 8, 2014 (MUSIC MAKERS):

SALISBURY CATHEDRAL’S DEAN SAID THIS MAN, VIA HIS 2013 ALBUM, “IS CREATING A HUGE AWARENESS OF” AN HISTORIC DOCUMENT

Correct response: Who is Jay-Z?

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