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April 7, 2014

Daily analysis, Monday, April 7

Back to regular play with our (possibly controversial?) champion Amy Nienaber. Will she extend her streak to a third game?The Final Wager - April 7, 2014

In case you missed it over the weekend, be sure to check out my video with special guest Dan Pawson.

What a thrilling finish to our second round! Amy took the last two clues of Double Jeopardy! to leapfrog both of her challengers. She’s got control of the steering wheel in Final.

Amy Nienaber: 12,800
Michelle Leppert: 12,400
Jonathan Kuehnle: 12,200

The Final Jeopardy! category: FOOD & DRINK

In a tight game, third place needs to wager defensively.

Basic strategy

Amy should go for 12,000 to lock out Michelle.

Michelle should also wager 12,000 to cover a double-up by Jonathan. Note that this will drop her below Amy if they both get it wrong; therefore, she might as well wager everything, particularly in case Amy wagers for the tie.

Alternatively, she could wager no more than 11,600 to stay above Amy should they both miss, but she’ll risk falling behind Jonathan.

Jonathan should wager no more than 11,400 to stay above Amy if they both miss. He should also wager at least 1,200 to cover zero and “unsafe” wagers (shall I now call them “Colbyesque“?) by both of his leaders.

Mind games

I would recommend first place stay away from mind games in a close match like this. What are the chances one player wagers rationally? OK, how about two? Yeah, exactly.

Does Michelle think Jonathan will make a proper wager? If so, she might wager at least 11,200 (and no more than 11,600, as we previously determined) as an alternative. This will keep her above Amy should they both miss.

If she gets it wrong with an 11,200 wager, she’ll be left with 1,200. To account for this possibility, Jonathan might want to cap his wager at 11,000.

Jonathan, in third, can really only win if both Amy and Michelle miss. With this overly large wager, he also requires himself to get it right! I understand it’s tough to accept that the game is almost entirely out of your control, but you play with the hand you’re dealt.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for April 7, 2014 (FOOD & DRINK):

THE CORPORATE WEBSITE FOR THIS PRODUCT SAYS IT LEAVES ITS CONTAINER AT .028 MILES PER HOUR

Correct response: What is Heinz ketchup?

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