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April 4, 2014

Daily analysis, Friday, April 4 – Battle of the Decades game 15

Battle of the Decades – preliminary round
1980s 1990s 2000s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
knockout rounds

Our preliminary round concludes with two Brooklynites and another Keith W. I think the production staff is just trying to rub it in my face.

And as it turns out, one of the players isn’t very happy with me. (See the video.)

Click here for my preview.The Final Wager - April 4, 2014

The Battle of Brooklyn is fierce, but Maria is in the lead heading into Final, courtesy of a large Daily Double wager.

Dan Pawson: 15,700
Maria Wenglinsky: 18,100
Keith Whitener: 4,200

The Final Jeopardy! category: 20th CENTURY NOVEL QUOTES

Basic strategy

Maria should wager 13,301 to claim the win if she’s right.

Dan should wager at least 4,800 to cover an “unsafe” wager by Maria, and no more than 7,299 to stay above Keith should he double up.

Keith needs to get it right to have a shot against Maria (4,799), so he should wager everything.

Mind games

If Maria thinks Dan will wager to stay above Keith (Shore’s Conjecture), she should wager 4,900 to cover him.

In response, Dan might want to wager 2,401 – 2,499; this would cover a zero by Maria (Rule #3), and stay above her if they’re both wrong.

If he’s feeling aggressive, Dan might also risk up to 10,900, the most he can put up against a rational wager-to-cover by Maria. This does risk falling below Keith if Keith gets it right. In that case, Maria will want to wager 8,501.

This possibility, in turn, restricts Dan’s maximum “proper” wager to 6,100.

Phew!

Maria’s wager gets the dark red: she falls below Keith’s pre-Final total, so if for some reason he had wagered 0 (or even the bare minimum, 600, to cover Maria’s “proper” wager), she’d have finished behind him.

And, yes, Dan was wearing a Mockingjay pin. Fellow (fallen) Tribute Stephanie Jass explains the story here.

I think this Final clue was poorly written, but that’s just my opinion.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for April 4, 2014 (20th CENTURY NOVEL QUOTES):

“IT WAS ONE OF THOSE PICTURES…SO CONTRIVED THAT THE EYES FOLLOW YOU…BENEATH” THE PICTURE WAS THIS 5-WORD QUOTE

Correct response: What is “Big Brother is watching you?”

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