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March 26, 2014

Daily analysis, Wednesday, March 26

We broke a huge drought yesterday. Can our two-day(!) champ keep up her run?The Final Wager - March 26, 2014

She’s in third place heading into Final, but she’s still alive. Deborah had a Penultimate Wager opportunity, which I’ll discuss below (here’s a video).

Nancy Akerman: 6,200
Clay Walls: 9,800
Deborah Ellis: 11,000

The Final Jeopardy! category: AGRICULTURE

With proper wagering by all of our players, Nancy will need to get it right to have a shot.

Deborah should wager 8,600 to cover Clay.

Clay should wager at least 2,600 to cover Nancy, and no more than 3,600 so as not to fall below a zero wager by her.

Nancy should wager at least 3,600 to cover a zero wager by Clay, and no more than 3,800 so as not to fall below Deborah if they’re both wrong.

Note that I don’t suggest any “mind games” here. Rule #3 is not as hard-and-fast as the others, so I see no reason to enter that realm.

Yes, it’s true that Deborah would have pulled this off with a 2,400 wager, but does she really want to take the chance that Clay won’t wager something like 7,400, 7,200, or 4,600 (none of which is really farfetched), let alone everything?

Also note: adding that extra dollar cost Deborah the second-place prize – and had Clay wagered everything, the game. GO FOR THE TIE!

Now, for The Penultimate Wager. The scores are as follows:

Nancy: 6,200
Clay: 9,800
Deborah: 9,000 (DD)

Deborah needs to wager at least 801 to take the lead. Let’s break apart each possibility.

Two-player scenarios (see Part Two)

Second = 1/2 first: Deborah would need 4,900, but that’s less than Nancy’s score, so that doesn’t work.

Second = 2/3 first: Clay’s score is not divisible by 3. (Quick tip: add the digits together. If this sum is divisible by 3, the number is divisible by 3.)

Second = 3/4 first: Deborah can go for 1,650, giving her the lead if she’s right and 7,350 if she’s wrong. However, 3/4 is not a great wager-to-tie scenario generally, and particularly so here because Nancy is still in contention (which more or less forces Deborah to go all-in).

Three-player scenarios (see Part Four)

Equally-spaced scores: a 1,000 wager will give Deborah the lead if she’s right, and a wager-to-tie situation if she’s wrong. This is her best wager, in my view.

First = second + third: a 5,400 wager will put her at 3,600 if she’s wrong – in third place. Not great.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for March 26, 2014 (AGRICULTURE):

PRUNIS DULCIS, THIS SNACK HIGH IN CALCIUM & VITAMIN E, IS NATIVE TO THE MIDEAST, BUT 80% OF THE WORLD CROP COMES FROM CALIFORNIA

Correct response: What are almonds?

One Comment
  1. Josh Woo permalink

    Case Study Number One when it comes to betting for the tie?

What do you think?