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February 19, 2014

Daily analysis, Wednesday, February 19 – 2014 College Championship, SF #3

2014 College Championship
Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2

Let’s go Erika! Beat Harvard! Beat Berkeley!The Final Wager - February 19, 2014

Yet another tight game. Here are the scores heading into Final:

Kevin Shen (Berkeley): 13,000
Erika Sloan (Middlebury): 11,600
Julia Clark (Harvard): 10,600

The Final Jeopardy! category: SHAKESPEARE CHARACTERS

Erika had a good Daily Double opportunity toward the end of DJ!. We’ll talk about that in a moment.

Kevin should wager 10,201.

Erika should wager at least 9,601.

Julia should wager between 4,800 and 7,800; in reality, though, she can go as low as 2,401, since neither Kevin nor Erika is likely to wager small.

Mind games: if she thinks Julia will wager rationally, Erika can wager 6,801. This will keep her above Kevin if they’re both wrong. Julia responds by limiting her wager to 5,800.

Damn you Trebek and your editorializing! You gave away the excitement.

Now, for that Daily Double: Erika found it under the 1,600 clue in a category basically about famous women. There was a 2,000 left. The scores:

Kevin: 13,000
Erika: 10,200
Julia: 10,600

Erika wagered 1,200 and got it right. In a tight game, if you’re in second, it’s better to be closer to first than to third – that way, you still have a chance to win if you get it wrong in Final. I would have liked a wager of at least 1,601, although preferably shooting for the lead, because being in second is a curse in a close match.

Maybe she thought she could get the last clue right and take the lead. Unfortunately, not doing so cost her the match.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for February 19, 2014 (SHAKESPEARE CHARACTERS):


Correct response: Who is Falstaff?

  1. Kelly permalink

    I think a good DD wager for Erika would have been $4,801 – guaranteeing her a lead with a correct response if she was right as long as she refrained from trying on the last clue afterwards (unless Kevin rang in and got it wrong first, at which point she could even safely try for a crush). (In a regular game I’d say $4,800, but you want to avoid must-wager-to-tie scenarios, like a tie for the lead, if possible here.) Like you said in a tight game second is often a tough place to be, so trying for a lead (even at the expense of being in a scenario needing a sole Final get to win if you end up missing the DD) is IMO a good move.

    • I agree – I was yelling “5,000!” at the screen. The risk is if Julia pulls the last $2,000 clue, Erika is locked out with proper wagering. It’s a scary situation, particularly since they hadn’t done so well on the easier clues in the category.

What do you think?