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February 12, 2014

Daily analysis, Wednesday, February 12 – 2014 College Championship, QF #3

2014 College Championship
Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2

At the midpoint of this year’s College quarterfinals, we’ve got students from UC-Berkeley, Princeton, and Oakwood University.The Final Wager - February 12, 2014

I liked Terry’s large-ish DD wager even though she had a sizable lead.  She’s still in good shape heading into Final.

Kenesha Bennett (Oakwood): 2,200
Terry O’Shea (Princeton): 15,400
Kevin Shen (Berkeley): 10,800

The Final Jeopardy! category: BIBLE CHARACTERS

Here’s what I’d do as each player.

Terry can go for the lock-out wager with 6,201, or try for something smaller – I’d pick at least 1,801 in case Kevin wagers to stay above Kenesha. (15,400 is in the 67th percentile for wild cards, historically.)

Kevin can wager at most 1,600 to play for the win if he thinks Terry will go big. He can wager up to 6,400 to stay at or above Kenesha’s doubled total. (10,800 is in the 36th percentile.)

Kenesha should wager everything. The lowest score ever to advance in the College Championship is 5,600, and since the questions are easier than in the TOC (which once had a cut-off of zero), she’s in a huge hole here.

Good wagering all around. Kevin’s play reminded me of Tom Nissley’s $3 wager to win his TOC QF, one of the most brilliant moves I’ve ever seen.

Each day I’ll update the standings with my estimated chances of advancing for the wild-card candidates. These are based on past data compiled for my tutorial.

Quarterfinal winners:

Whitney Thompson (Oklahoma)
Ben Juster (UCLA)
Terry O’Shea (Princeton)

Wild-card standings, with estimated probability of advancing:

Kevin Shen (Berkeley): 15,401 (99%)
Laurie Beckoff (U Chicago):  13,400 (74%)
Cameron Kim (Duke):  10,800 (14%)
Kenesha Bennett (Oakwood): 4,400 (~0%)
Sarah Stevens (Delaware):  1,400
James Fulwiler (Temple):  0

The Final Jeopardy! clue for February 12, 2014 (BIBLE CHARACTERS):

“TAKE CARE OF HIM,” SAYS THE MAN CALLED THIS IN LUKE 10 AFTER GIVING MONEY TO AN INNKEEPER

Correct response: Who is The Good Samaritan?

2 Comments
  1. Kelly permalink

    I caught an error – Kevin’s final score is 15,401, not 15,801 (as you put it in the standings).

What do you think?