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February 10, 2014

Daily analysis, Monday, February 10 – 2014 College Championship, QF #1

2014 College Championship
Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2

And we’re off with the opening game of the 2014 College Championship! Today’s roster: Temple, Delaware, Oklahoma.The Final Wager - February 10, 2014

We briefly had a tie going into Final, before a judges’ ruling reversed it. Bah, humbug!

James Fulwiler (Temple University): 9,200
Sarah Stevens (University of Delaware): 6,200
Whitney Thompson (University of Oklahoma): 10,000

The Final Jeopardy! category: ISLANDS

It’s tricky situation for all three. Do you like the category? Then go big! If you don’t like it, stay small – perhaps Whitney and James might just focus on getting ahead of Sarah if she doubles up, while Whitney does the typical Rule #2 approach with those two.

The only wager I really dislike here is Sarah’s – the “proper” wager by Whitney would have left her with 1,599, so if Sarah wasn’t going all-in, she should have stayed above this.

Each day I’ll update the standings with my estimated chances of advancing for the wild-card candidates. These are based on past data compiled for my tutorial.

Quarterfinal winners:

Whitney Thompson (University of Oklahoma)

Wild-card standings, with estimated probability of advancing in parentheses:

Sarah Stevens (University of Delaware):  1,400 (~0%)
James Fulwiler (Temple University):  0 (~0%)

The Final Jeopardy! clue for February 10, 2014 (ISLANDS):


Final Jeopardy video February 10, 2014

Correct response: What is Sicily?

  1. Josh Woo permalink

    Is that a close-up of your trophy in the video thumbnail, Keith?

  2. Brian Weikle permalink

    I hate hate HATE James’ wager here. Granted, the difference between $0 and (say) $1 is very small, but there have been instances where that dollar would get you into the semifinals. There is essentially zero chance that the difference between $18,400 and $18,399 will matter at all.

    • Good point, Brian. Speaking of which, since you were in the audience for the last four games of the TOC in question, how did the mood change as the day went on and the $0 scores piled up?

      • Brian Weikle permalink

        Well MY mood was pretty great the whole rest of the day. Oh, that’s not what you meant??
        I don’t think the audience realized what was happening. I mean, even the players had to ask what would happen if there weren’t enough potential wildcards who finished in the money. As a player who’s already played, you kind of forget that the other players have been sequestered, so you just assume that the late-in-the-week players will save some cash because there have been so many $0 scores. But of course those players don’t know that, and I know for sure that none of them even knew what the rule was for a $0 wildcard.

What do you think?