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January 21, 2014

Daily analysis, Tuesday, January 21

Yesterday’s champion claimed a wagering strategy of “lock it up before Final”. Will that work tonight?The Final Wager - January 21, 2014

Not by a long shot. This was an exciting match to watch – had I been sitting on a chair with armrests, I might have had my fingernails stuck into them.

We had plenty of opportunities to enter a wager-to-tie situation; I was really hopeful that all three players would have 11,000 going into Final, and that all three might then wager nothing!

Sarah McNitt: 11,400
Priscilla Emery: 11,000
Emily Gadek: 9,400

The Final Jeopardy! category: INTERNATIONAL SPORTS

All right, I know what some of you are thinking – a SPORTS category with WOMEN? Alas, there’s no real good way for any player to hedge her chances against a triple-stumper; Emily is in the best position if it’s a tough clue.

Sarah should wager 10,600.

Priscilla should wager between 7,800 (to lock out Emily) and 10,200 (to stay at or above Sarah’s total).

Emily should wager at least 2,000 in case both Sarah and Priscilla wager 0; to be extra safe, she should put up at least 4,000 to cover an “unsafe” wager by each. Her maximum is 6,200 to stay above a Priscilla miss.

All three players wagered improperly.

Sarah’s 302 is an example of an “unsafe” wager – a timid bet designed to stay above Priscilla should Priscilla stand pat. In this case, however, both Priscilla and Emily are safe in wagering to pass Sarah, so it’s not a great option.

Priscilla’s wager is the worst of the three. Why not tack on the extra 800? Emily would have won, improbably, had all three gotten it right!

The Final Jeopardy! clue for January 21, 2014 (INTERNATIONAL SPORTS):

TWICE THE HOST COUNTRY, THIS NATION OF 4 1/2 MILLION LEADS THE WORLD IN TOTAL WINTER OLYMPIC MEDALS

Correct response: What is Norway?

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