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January 16, 2014

Daily analysis, Thursday, January 16

I don’t know what’s been going on the past few nights, but I sure hope our two challengers have been paying attention.The Final Wager - January 16, 2014

Sarah’s escaped with two consecutive 4,000 Final Wagers in a row. Fluke, or a bona fide strategy? She’s a good player – don’t get me wrong.

Sarah McNitt: 13,600
Gudrun Juffer: 1,200
Stacy Meyers: 10,400

The Final Jeopardy! category: SHAKESPEARE

I’m going to dig into this a little bit to assume this is a consistent thing out of Sarah.

Sarah should wager 7,200. Don’t screw with me, man!

Stacy should, according to “proper” wagering theory, wager between 3,200 and 4,000. However, if she thinks Sarah will try the 4,000 move again, she should put up at least 7,200. Note that this will cost Stacy the game in the event she’s wrong.

Gudrun is out of contention, but she should probably keep a few dollars in case Stacy goes for broke.

It turns out Sarah’s 4,000 wagers were not flukes. That’s what she intended to do every time. Perhaps it’s an amulet to ward off evil spirits. Hey, it’s worked so far, but that doesn’t make it right.

Notice that with her larger wager, Stacy would have won had she responded correctly. As the leader, why would you put yourself in this position? At the very least you should make it so you don’t fall below second’s pre-Final score if you’re wrong – in this case, I’d go for between 800 and 3,200.

Final Jeopardy alternative January 16, 2014

The Final Jeopardy! clue for January 16, 2014 (SHAKESPEARE):

Correct response: What is Henry?

One Comment
  1. Kelly permalink

    Wonder if Sarah would still wager 4,000 even if she has a lock but by less than that amount? If so, maybe it would be a good time for one (or perhaps both) of the trailers to take advantage of that (to prepare for the first-ever potential [known] loss due to a Clavin in a regular game).

    Or maybe she’d bet 4,000 even if she was trailing and that wasn’t enough to get her in winning range when a higher amount would (finishing in the black using your grading system)?

What do you think?