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December 27, 2013

Daily analysis, Friday, December 27

More late-game strategy in this weekend edition of The Final Wager.

The Final Wager December 27, 2013

Jerry’s on his way to victory number two. And for the second straight day, a competitor failed to give himself a shot by declining to take a guess on the penultimate clue.

Jerry Slowik: 25,000
Avram Polinsky: 11,600
Kathy Cacace: 3,600

Even if Avram had said “Who is Kate Middleton?” on that $2,000 clue on Shakespearean characters clue, he’d have given himself a better chance than by just standing there and letting the game slip away.

A correct response would have given him 13,600, more than half of Jerry’s total. Had he gotten it wrong, he still would have been firmly in second – and at that point, Kathy would have had every reason to chime in with a random stab, to give herself a chance at second.

I also have some thoughts on Jerry’s Daily Double wager on the previous clue. At that time, the scores were:

Jerry: 22,400
Avram: 11,600
Kathy: 3,600

With a $2,000 clue remaining and seeming confidence in the category, Jerry should think of how to guarantee himself a victory if he’s right. If Avram gets the last clue, he’ll have 13,600 – so Jerry will need 27,200 to lock it up. I would have loved a wager of at least 4,800.

The downside is if he’s wrong, he’ll have no more than 17,600 – still a commanding lead and giving him plenty of ways to win in Final, assuming no one gets the last clue. A 5,000 drop would have given him exactly 1.5 times Avram’s score, a wager-to-tie situation. Any more than that is foolish.

If he’s less confident, I like the range 800 – 1,200. A correct response will put him in “lock” territory if the final clue goes unanswered. If he gets it wrong, he can still get the last clue correct and give himself that same guarantee.

All three wagers were fine, but no real props for that in a “double lock” situation, one in which no position will change with proper strategy.

Final Jeopardy wagers December 27, 2013

The Final Jeopardy! clue for December 27, 2013:

The Final Jeopardy! category: 18th CENTURY AMERICA

Correct response: What are The Articles of Confederation?

One Comment
  1. Avram Polinsky permalink

    I really didn’t know the answer to the last question. I could have said Kate Middleton, but would have looked stupid on TV and would not have helped my chances of winning at all. I would have needed to know that answer and get Final correct, and have Jerry miss Final in order to win. Had I answered Kate Middleton and gotten wrong Kathy could have gotten it right and would have had a chance to steal second place and an extra $1000 from me. Earlier in the round I knew Valence Electrons for the $2000 clue, but didn’t ring in. Even if I had rung in with Jerry getting the last Daily Double and both he and I knowing Final Jeopardy he would have won the game.

What do you think?