Skip to content
December 19, 2013

Daily analysis, Thursday, December 19

In his intro today, Alex mentioned the importance of savvy wagering. Did he foresee tonight’s Final Wager scenario?

Our champion, Varun, is once again trailing going into Final.

Varun Shekhar: 6,800
Mary Gildea: 4,600
Jenna Johnson: 11,400

We start with our normal figuring.

Jenna should wager 2,200 to cover Varun.

Varun needs to get it right to have a shot. He’ll need to wager at least 2,400 to be in contention should Jenna wager properly.

2,400 happens to be the amount he needs to wager to lock out Mary. Interesting. Does this sound suspicious to you?

Mary will need to get to 9,200 to have a shot against Jenna. Lo and behold, that’s exactly twice her current total. Since she can’t wager more than her total, she HAS to wager 4,600.

Because one of our players is forced into a particular wager, we turn to Rule #4, which I discuss in Part Two of my wagering tutorial:

If your opponent is forced into a specific wager, hone yours

This scenario is a “wager-to-tie” scenario called first equals second plus third. I discussed this in depth in Part Four, and suggested that all players memorize it before going on the show. Usually, it comes in most handy for Penultimate Wagers, but we just happened to luck into it tonight.

If Jenna tacks on that extra dollar, she risks losing by that amount to Mary: 9,200 – 9,199. I assume any player would rather take a tie than a loss, so Jenna should wager exactly 2,200.

Now, since Jenna (if she plays it right) is withholding that dollar, Varun has an opportunity to tie by wagering everything. There’s no real reason to go for a smaller amount, anyway, since he’ll need to respond correctly to win.

Varun tried to hedge his opportunity for second place. It wouldn’t have mattered, because had both he and Mary wagered everything and missed, he would have taken second anyway. And there was no reason for Mary NOT to wager everything.

Here’s how that extra dollar could have come back to haunt Jenna:

The Final Jeopardy! clue for December 19, 2013:

CHILDREN’S LITERATURE
JERRY JONES, MARK CUBAN & MAYOR MIKE RAWLINGS WERE THREE OF THE REAL FOLKS AT THE 2013 MEMORIAL FOR THIS TV CHARACTER

Correct response: Who was J.R. Ewing?

Summary
Title
The Final Wager's Daily Analysis - December 19, 2013
Description
Analysis of the Final Jeopardy! wagers for the match that first aired December 19, 2013 between Varun Shekhar, Mary Gildea, and Jenna Johnson.
Author
Leave a Comment

What do you think?