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November 11, 2013

Daily analysis, November 11 – Teachers Tournament QF #1

2013 Teachers Tournament
Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2

And we’re off with our first tournament of the year! Not too much analysis this week, I predict.

Cover 20131111

We’ve got a good game to kick off our quarterfinals. Our fifteen contestants will vie for nine semifinal spots, which will go to the five winners and the four highest-scoring non-winners. (Here’s my overview.)

Anne Baxter: 13,600
Katie Moriarty: 12,400
Rico Vazquez: 5,800

Now remember, the players don’t have to go for the win. If they have specific wild-card scores in mind they should aim for them.

The only “bad” wager would be anything more than 11,201 from Anne, since there’s no “bonus” for winning by more than a dollar.

Final Jeopardy wagering November 11 2013

Maybe Katie ran the stats herself and saw that 16,400 would give her an 80% chance of a wild card, like I said in my video? Strange coincidence.

This week I’ll maintain a list of how players do and adjust my estimates as new scores come to light.

Quarterfinal winners:

Anne Baxter

Wild-card standings, with my estimate of probability of advancing in parentheses:

Katie Moriarty – 16,400 (80%)
Rico Vazquez – 11,400 (44%)

The Final Jeopardy! clue for November 11, 2013:


Correct response: Who is Diana Nyad?

  1. Kelly permalink

    Here’s how I would’ve probably wagered if I put myself in each contestants’ shoes:

    Rico – I’d probably either bet $3,400 to beat Anne should she try to cover and miss while improving my situation as much as possible, or bet it all (or nearly all) if I felt more confident or thought Anne would bet small. I’d say his actual wager is okay, leaving a little behind in case a repeat of the 2003 ToC happens.

    Katie – If I was uncomfortable with the category I might go with something under $600 to keep Rico from possibly overtaking me. Another possible “sweet spot” is between $2,401 and $3,199 which would cover what would be an “unsafe” wager from Anne in a regular game (more on that below) while keeping Rico below me should he bet $3,400 as I suggested above. I would not bet anything more than $10,000 though so I’d stay above Anne if she covered and missed, and $22,400 would virtually lock up a wildcard spot if right. While probably not the most fully optimal (she does still force Rico to get it right to overtake her), I’d give her actual wager a passing grade.

    Anne – I think her two best options here are to either make the usual cover bet (as she did) or bet no more than $1,199 to guarantee a win if everyone gets Final wrong. If she wants to make a “middle of the road” bet $7,799 might work which would still put her in very likely WC territory if right and keep her above Rico if both miss.

    • Kelly permalink

      Revision to Anne’s suggestions: if she went “small” she should also probably stay at $600 or under given the possibility of Katie going “small” against Rico.

What do you think?