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September 16, 2013

Analysis – week of September 16, 2013

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Monday, September 16
Tuesday, September 17
Wednesday, September 18
Thursday, September 19
Friday, September 20


Monday, September 16

Here’s a breakdown of the strategy for Final Jeopardy! in the opening game of Season 30. (As you might expect, this contains spoilers – as might the comments!)

Before you watch this video, I suggest you check out Part One of my “How to wager” series, which provides the framework for wagering when two players are involved.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments!

Jared Hall: 18,800
Angela Murock Hussein: 14,400
James Mardock: 6,400

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Tuesday, September 17

Here’s my take on the wagering for Tuesday’s game, in which champion Jared Hall had a huge lead going into Final.

Before you watch this video, I suggest you check out Part One of my “How to wager” series, which provides the framework for wagering when two players are involved.

Jared Hall: 32,000
Melissa Jurgens: 6,600
Tova Meyer: 9,400

When first has things locked up, the other players must maximize their chances of taking second. Second place gets you $2,000 in “consolation” money, against $1,000 for third – so there’s an advantage.

Jared can wager up to 13,200
Tova should wager 3,800, since there’s no point in wagering more (she’ll still get $2,000)
Melissa can wager up to 999, unless she thinks Tova will wager small

The Final Jeopardy! clue for September 17, 2013:

U.S. PLACES
A LOGO ON THIS TOWN’S WEBSITE INCLUDES ITS INCORPORATION DATE, 1981, AS WELL AS THE HISTORIC DATE DEC. 17, 1903

Correct response: What is Kitty Hawk, North Carolina?

What do you think? Sound off in the comments!

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Wednesday, September 18

This time around, I’ve included the FJ! clue in the video (you’ll have to pause it as it’s quick!)

Jared Hall: 32,000
Todd Martin: 6,600
Jen Yoak: 9,400

In this circumstance, first has more than twice second, and second has more than twice third – a “double lock”. So with proper wagering, the order should remain the same no matter what. Jared is the only player with reason to wager anything, since he’ll keep what he wins.

Jared can wager at most 4,600
Todd can wager at most 4,200
Jen‘s wager is irrelevant with proper wagering from the others

The Final Jeopardy! clue for September 18, 2013:

WORLD WAR II
BECAUSE TIME WAS SHORT, ONLY THIS SHIP’S STARBOARD SIDE, USED FOR BOARDING, WAS REPAINTED SEPTEMBER 1, 1945

Correct response: What is the U.S.S. Missouri?

Be sure to check out Part One of my “How to wager” series, which provides the framework for wagering when two players are involved.The Final Wager daily cover 20130918

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Thursday, September 19

Today’s analysis includes an invitation for one of the players to explain the thinking behind a wager.

Parth Sheth: 13,600
Jared Hall: 10,000
Hillary Kwiatek: 4,800

The wagering here is straightforward.

Parth should wager 6,400 to cover a double-up by Jared
Jared should wager at most 400 to keep Hillary locked out
Hillary should wager at least 2,400 to cover Parth’s total assuming an incorrect response

Parth showed a strong affinity for academic trivia, and not so much for pop culture. Maybe he’ll be afraid to bet big, banking on Jared wagering small. Although he still wagered rationally, Jared’s all-in wager made sense in that light.

Here’s a deeper discussion of the game theory behind Jared’s wager.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for September 19, 2013:

CLASSIC ALBUMS
THIS 1960S ALBUM ENDS WITH THE LINE “I’D LOVE TO TURN YOU ON”

Correct response: What is Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band?

Be sure to check out Part One of my “How to wager” series, which provides the framework for wagering when two players are involved.The Final Wager daily cover 20130918

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Friday, September 20

We’re done with the first week of the season! How did our champion and challengers do on Friday?

Jared Hall: 32,000
Kellie Chan: 6,600
Matt Volk: 9,400

The Final Jeopardy! clue for September 20, 2013:

FRENCH GEOGRAPHY
8 COUNTRIES BORDER MAINLAND FRANCE; ITS SMALLEST BORDER, AT 2.7 MILES, IS WITH THIS COUNTRY

Correct response: What is Monaco?

Be sure to check out Part One of my “How to wager” series, which provides the framework for wagering when two players are involved.The Final Wager daily cover 20130918

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